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Ferrellgas Partners LP Message Board

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  • lawstuff22 lawstuff22 Mar 16, 2012 8:29 AM Flag

    S&P Raises FGP

    its all going to be fine

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    • I tend to agree. And, I don't think I qualify as a "bag" because I sold half my position @ 24 locking down nice gains and also, FGP is only part of a diversified portfolio. And, the largest position in that portfolio is cash.

      I would not advise to sell at these level, or worse, short it down from here. Eek.

      I heard a rumor that Japan may start increased buying of nat gas from USA, a backlash of local public opposition to re-starting the nuclear reactors. That might help FGP long term.

      In other news, my CLNE position is up 30%. That's good for FGP long term too, as CLNE continues its aggressive build-up of nat gas infrastructure. It may even present an opportunity for a partnership.

      I'm a 20-year investor, and I try to bet on long term trends. I have a limit order in to pick up another small chunk of FGP @ 14.

      Off-topic: my AAPL position is still up ~ 60%. Yay. Holding.

      • 1 Reply to markind69
      • You don't sound like a bag at all Mark, in particular because you obviously put some thought into your investments (80% of the public and 95% of bags do not). Proper diversification is key. A few thoughts:

        "I would not advise to sell at these level, or worse, short it down from here. Eek."

        Why not? The enterprise value is $2.5 Billion (debt + equity) against EBITDA of $200M in a good year (it's much worse right now) - so even that is 12.5x which is outrageous in my view. IMHO the only thing keep the share price in double digits is the unsustainable yield which may have to be cut massively or entirely to stay onside the debt covenants

        The debt was just downgraded by Moody's to B-1 which is far down the junk scale and defined as "Judged as being speculative and a high credit risk" and with a NEGATIVE outlook meaning further downgrades are possible - and that is for an instrument that RANKS AHEAD OF YOU.

        As a comparison, your Apple trades at 8X EBITDA, and that EBITDA is growing 30% per year.


        "I heard a rumor that Japan may start increased buying of nat gas from USA, a backlash of local public opposition to re-starting the nuclear reactors. That might help FGP long term."

        That would be very long term, and the only way this could help FGP is by raising the price of nat gas enough to keep people from fleeing propane which is a huge amount - a non-factor for FGP. It's like hoping for $1.00/gallon gasoline to save your Hummer dealership.

        Congrats on CLNE. Be careful and not greedy - consider taking your cost off the table. It is a $2 Billion story stock that has doubled in past 2 months, and generates no profit. nat gas for transprotation is a slow slow development - reminds me of the fuel cell companies 10 years ago - market won't be patient with it so is at risk of a big selloff at any time. A catalyst would be nat gas going up (it will) and oil coming down (it would be $85 without the Iran nonsense). Just be careful and don't be a bag on it.

        AAPL is good, but I'd consider harvesting some gains on the way up.

        Re a limit order on FGP - I would be careful - if they cut the distribution your 14 standing order might be a speed bump on the way to 10 or lower - I'd consider just watching it instead of having an order in you might regret if there is negative news.

 
FGP
26.76-0.25(-0.93%)1:03 PMEDT

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