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Microvision Inc. Message Board

  • mirro7 mirro7 Aug 22, 2007 2:28 PM Flag

    MVIS:Research Report

    I have just finished a research report [for my hedge fund friends] and its available to you... so you can share the MVIS stock opportunity with your friends and family.

    In 1975, a relative who worked for Intel tried very hard to convince me of INTEL stock opportunity. At the time, I "phoo phooed" the whole idea and ignored his recommendation. Today INTEL processors are everywhere [ubiquitous]... and I am sorry that I did not listen to him... and missed a great opportunity.

    In the next 2 to 5 years Microvision's PicoP Display Engine will be inside standalone nano-projectors, cell phones, PDAs, laptops, iPods, iPhones, Personal mobile TV, digital cameras, new automobile models, fashion eyewear and so on. PicoP Display Engine will be everywhere [ubiquitous].

    Microvision stock opportunity will be ten times bigger bigger than INTEL in 1975... because market for PicoP Display Engine is ten times bigger than computer CPUs.

    Shares this report with your friends, family, brokers and the people you like and care about. Its a good thing... spread it.

    Glotech

    Send your request to my e-mail: Mirro7@Gmail.com

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    • Today, the MVIS stock is down 10 to 12 cents on the day on relatively low volume of 350,000 shares.

      On a day like this, it is important to remind yourself why you are in the MVIS stock [in the first place] and what your RISK vs Reward is over a mid [six months] to long term [2 to 3 years] basis.

      We have discussed the RISK [in the short term] already and know it so well. For those who need reminding about the potential REWARD part, here�s the re-post from the report on MVIS stock�

      Reward: For those who understand the company�s � business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market� the rewards are phenomenal. In 2009, the PPS could be over $60, assuming a 3% adoption rate [from 1 billion unit market] and 10% market share for Microvision. Here�s the math�

      � Worldwide Market Size: 800 million units
      � Market Adoption Rate: 5%... 40 million units
      � Market share: 15% of 40 million units� 6 million units
      � OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
      � Revenue: $463 million (for full year 2009)
      � Net Profit Margin: 25%
      � EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $85 million
      � Interest: $0 million
      � Tax: $0 million
      � Depreciation: non cash and very small
      � Amortization: non cash and very small
      � Earning Per Share: $1.45 on a fully diluted basis [56 million shares]
      � Price Earning Ratio: 50 for a hyper growth company
      � Price Per Share: $72 per share

      The Risk is insignificant [may be 6% per year in lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 15 to 20 times your money in the next 2 to 3 years.

      In the 2011 to 2012 time frame, the stock could easily trade in the $600 to $800 range. Here�s the projection�

      � Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units
      � Market Adoption Rate: 20%... 200 million units
      � Microvision Market share: 15% of 200 million units� 30 million units
      � OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
      � Revenue: $2.72 billion
      � Net Profit Margin: 40%
      � EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.03 billion
      � Interest Expense: $0 million
      � Interest Income: $20 million
      � Tax: $200 million
      � Depreciation: non cash and very small
      � Amortization: non cash and very small
      � Earning Per Share: $12.05 on a fully diluted basis [70 million shares]
      � Price Earning Ratio: 50 for a hyper growth company
      � Price Per Share: $600 per share

      In my book, the Risk is insignificant [may be 6% per year in lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making over 100 times your money in the next 4 to 5 years.

      Glotech

    • MVIS: Financial Projections (Part 2)

      Reward: For those who understand the company�s � business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market� the rewards are phenomenal. In 2009, the PPS could be over $60, assuming a 3% adoption rate [from 1 billion unit market] and 10% market share for Microvision. Here�s the math�

      � Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units
      � Market Adoption Rate: 3%... 30 million units
      � Market share: 10% of 30 million units� 3 million units
      � OEM price: $100 per PicoP display engine
      � Revenue: $300 million
      � Net Profit Margin: 40%
      � Net Profit: $120 million
      � EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $90 million
      � Interest: $0 million
      � Tax: $0 million
      � Depreciation: non cash and very small
      � Amortization: non cash and very small
      � Earning Per Share: $1.60 on a fully diluted basis [56 million shares]
      � Price Earning Ratio: 50 for a hyper growth company
      � Price Per Share: $80 per share

      In my book, the Risk is insignificant [may be 6% per year in lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 17 to 20 times your money in the next 2 to 3 years.

      In the 2011 to 2012 time frame, the stock could easily trade in the $600 to $800 range. Here�s the projection�

      � Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units
      � Market Adoption Rate: 20%... 200 million units
      � Microvision Market share: 15% of 200 million units� 30 million units
      � OEM price: $90 per PicoP display engine
      � Revenue: $2.72 billion
      � Net Profit Margin: 40%
      � Net Profit: $1.03 billion
      � EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $1.03 billion
      � Interest Expense: $0 million
      � Interest Income: $20 million
      � Tax: $200 million
      � Depreciation: non cash and very small
      � Amortization: non cash and very small
      � Earning Per Share: $12.05 on a fully diluted basis [70 million shares]
      � Price Earning Ratio: 50 for a hyper growth company
      � Price Per Share: $600 per share

      In my book, the Risk is insignificant [may be 6% per year in lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 100 times your money in the next 4 to 5 years.

      Glotech

    • MVIS:Financial Projections (Part 1)

      Here's the updated Financial Projections...

      Stock Volatility: Over the last few months [3 months or so], both the �Historical Volatility� and �Implied Volatility� have come down gradually. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board.

      Stock Short Interest: Over the last month or so, the short interest has gone down by 14% and now stands at 7% of the float [56 million shares]. All in all, at the current low volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover� about 4 million shares short.

      Stock Trading Range: For a few months now, the stock is trading in a very tight range of �$4.50 to $4.85�. We have seen some very bad days on Wall Street in the recent few weeks� but the stock has held very well� and has traded in the $4.50 to $4.85 range. There seems to be very strong support at $4.50 or so.

      Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 10% and the Insiders hold [without considering 10 million private warrants and employee options] less than 1% of the outstanding stock [56 million on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 89% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock� a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock.

      Short Term Risk [next three months]: Over the next three months [up until CES in January] the stock PPS could drift lower� but hopefully does not trade any lower than $4.50. This is the short term risk to PPS� mainly due to lack of news or release of any significant news. Also, the MMs [stock and options] have an interest in keeping the PPS below $5 level� up until the DEC options expiration.

      Mid Term Risk [next 6 Qtrs]: Supply chain issues [if any] could trigger a time delay to the year end 2008 release of �stand alone� PicoP Projector. Two of the supply chain issues could be �green laser cost� and �green laser volume production�. Feasibility and product development of the various PicoP Projector components may not be the issue. The issue [if any] could be with the price and mass production of critical components from the supply chain. The supply chain issue is real and could possibly delay the end 2008 release of stand alone PicoP Projector. The delay, however, may be short and you could see quick recovery in PPS� in the event there is a speculative sell-off� triggered as a result of actual or perceived delay. If there were major supply chain issues, that could not be resolved in the next 18 months, there is a strong possibility that the company may [run out of money] and become the target of a hostile take over for $500 million [$10 PPS] to $1 billion [$20 PPS]. That�s the mid-term risk� but I will take it with a smile.

      Long Term Risk [over 2 years]: If the company survives the �hostile� take-over attempt in the mid-term [precipitated as a result of major supply chain issues], there is no long term issue� because the market is huge and the company has leadership position in four (4) different product categories.

      continued

    • If a company is not currently profitable, you can still value it based on future profit projections. It is done ALL the time? If it weren't there would know such thing as seed, VC or mezz capital.

      Ooh-rah!
      IJH

    • sensi and stu are just liars that's all they have in life

    • Double posting is a stefbooger danger sign.

    • Hhooo hhooo hheeee heeee
      hhooo hhooo hheeee heeee

    • MVIS:Risk vs. Reward

      In any investment, it is very important to look at RISK vs. REWARD. After having done considerable amount of research and analysis, I have reached the following conclusions [in a summary form]�.

      Stock Volatility: Over the last few months [3 months or so], both the �Historical Volatility� and �Implied Volatility� have come down gradually. Looks like we now have more believers [long] than speculators [shorts] on board.

      Stock Short Interest: Over the last month or so, the short interest has gone down by 14% and now stands at 7% of the float [56 million shares]. All in all, at the current low volume per day, it will take about 10 days to cover� about 4 million shares short.

      Stock Trading Range: For a few months now, the stock is trading in a very tight range of �$4.50 to $4.85�. We have seen some very bad days on Wall Street in the recent few weeks� but the stock has held very well� and has traded in the $4.50 to $4.85 range. There seems to be very strong support at $4.50 or so.

      Stock Holding: Institutions hold about 10% and the Insiders hold [without considering 10 million private warrants and employee options] less than 1% of the outstanding stock [56 million on a fully diluted basis]. This means that over 89% of the float is held by retail investors. This is a very wide distribution of MVIS stock� a good sign for PPS support [during lean times] and PPS momentum [good times] when institutions finally wake-up and come looking to take position in the MVIS stock.

      Short Term Risk [next three months]: Over the next three months [up until CES in January] the stock PPS could drift lower� but hopefully does not trade any lower than $4.50. This is the short term risk to PPS� mainly due to lack of news or release of any significant news. Also, the MMs [stock and options] have an interest in keeping the PPS below $5 level� up until the DEC options expiration.

      continued

      • 1 Reply to mirro7
      • MVIS:Risk vs. Reward


        Mid Term Rick [next 6 Qtrs]: Supply chain issues [if any] could trigger a time delay to the year end 2008 release of "stand alone" PicoP Projector. Two of the supply chain issues could be "green laser cost" and "green laser volume production". Feasibility and product development of the various PicoP Projector components may not be the issue. The issue [if any] could be with the price and mass production of critical components from the supply chain. The supply chain issue is real and could possibly delay the end 2008 release of stand alone PicoP Projector. The delay, however, may be short and you could see quick recovery in PPS... in the event there is a speculative sell-off... triggered as a result of actual or perceived delay. If there were major supply chain issues, that could not be resolved in the next 18 months, there is a strong possibility that the company may [run out of money] and become the target of a hostile take over for $500 million [$10 PPS] to $1 billion [$20 PPS]. That's the mid-term risk... but I will take it with a smile.

        Long Term Risk [over 2 years]: If the company survives the hostile take-over attempt in the mid-term [precipitated as a result of major supply chain issues], there is no long term issue... because the market is huge and the company has leadership position in four (4) different product categories.

        REWARD: For those who understand the company's -- business model; the various products; the size [and the pull] of the captive world wide market-- the rewards are phenomenal. In 2009, the PPS could be over $60, assuming a 3% adoption rate [from 1 billion unit market] and 10% market share for Microvision. Here's the math...

        ... Worldwide Market Size: 1 billion units
        ... Market Adoption Rate: 3%... 30 million units
        ... Market share: 10% of 30 million unit... 3 million units
        ... OEM price: $100 per PicoP display engine
        ... Revenue: $300 million
        ... Net Profit Margin: 40%
        ... Net Profit: $120 million
        ... EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortization: $90 million
        ... Interest: $0 million
        ... Tax: $0 million
        ... Depreciation: non cash and very small
        ... Amortization: non cash and very small
        ... Earning Per Share: $1.60 on a fully diluted basis [56 million shares]
        ... Price Earning Ratio: 50 for a hyper growth company
        ... Price Per Share: $80 per share


        In my book, the Risk is insignificant [may be 6% per year in lost opportunity] as compared to the potential of making 17 times [to 20 times] your money in 2 to 3 years.

        In the 2010 to 2012 time frame, the stock could easily trade in the $600 to $800 range.

        Not bad for a $4.60 stock in today's market. Who said patience and due diligence doesn't pay?

        Glotech

    • In the next few days, I will be updating the Report on Microvision... sections on "Competition" and "Financial Projections".

      As a result of my Report distribution effort, I have established a few relationships... that have pointed me in the right direction for useful information.

      The update will be very insightful and a step closer to being more realistic. In the meantime, it has never been a more exciting period in the history of Microvision. At $4.70, the PPS is a huge bargain... but certainly not for the faint hearted. You need to buy and HOLD the stock... or BUY the long term Call options.

      First Qtr 2008 will be full of exciting news. Till then, hold and be patient. We have a 20 begger [atleast] in the next 2 years.

      Glotech

      To get your free copy of the REPORT, e-mail me at: Mirro7@yahoo.com

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