Well, every day is a day closer to delisting and a day closer to bankruptcy. Thanks to the RS, at least one of those can be dealt with.
Everyone knows the play here, yet a bunch of blindly hopeful will fall for it yet again.
They need to get the stock to a reasonable price before they dilute again. Not because it benefits shareholders, but because a 10 million share offering at say $1.10 would be the last time they can go to the well.
History says they'll want to secure somewhere between $6-$10 million. Some of that will be warrants, but those have been and will always be worthless. Diluting too far in a single offering would be a signal there is nothing good coming. Diluting too little and they won't be able to continue operations.
They're clearly trying to nudge the stock higher at the fringes - ergo Tokeman's purchases.
Oppenheimer is the shady electronics store on 42nd street of brokerages, they'll take care of manipulating the share price higher. Anyone who disagrees should read the Big Short.
The objective is to get the PPS somewhere between 50-75% higher than it is today before diluting. They may try to create false hype around CES.
So - here's the play. I'm going to scale in to a long position this week. If MVIS moves more than 5% higher or lower than where it closed today I won't add.
I'm looking for an exit by mid January at $2-$2.25. At that point, I will sell all shares and short the same amount.
Nothing materially has changed. When it starts its run, the usual suspects will be pumping. "2014 - it begins".
Others who are so far underwater will be hopeful this time, something has changed. They'll buy more.
Then the dilution will come. Then there will be no positive news about the F100. And then the stock will collapse. It could go really low - like .50 - .75 whenever the market corrects, which could be any day at this point.
And along the way, I will post and confirm my gains or losses on this trade.
And still up - I'm looking for the pre-dilution run at this point as there was no news yet. That means holding into Feb, later than I'd planned.
I have a sell limit order in for $1.20 if we break that low, though.
I'm still thinking it pokes its head above $2 leading into the dilution.
I'm going to look to scale in short as well if it moves quickly towards $2.
Not likely to see anything near $2 prior to the expected dilution.... if the EGO wants to hold the NASDAQ he'll have to dilute more then 10 million shares at these levels just to get back to the $50/M Market Cap requirement (temporarily) .... Nothing out of CES, Nothing out of Detriot, Lack Luster Q3 CC where the CEO sounded dejected and lost... No follow-on orders from the G100, No follow on interest designated by the AUTO Prototype... Just a company lost in silence.... PUMPERS are LOST digging up OLD and republished articles as NEW and CURRENT... IR has stopped Tweeting and Blogging... Communications to the shareholders is falling apart except the ONE CONSTANT behind MVIS--- The EGO wants MORE UNSECURED MONEY (to make available the PAYCHECKS for this SKEPTICAL business... Why would you BLINDLY cast your vote in favor of a business that has now interest in making money other then fabricating more shares to cover its need.... TRADING AT ALL TIMES LOWS and your current value is going lower after dilution ... BUYER BEWARE ... To the abyss
And here we go. The holidays and Wall St taking time off are making for unusual trading.
Again, I am not bullish on MVIS - this is a trade, and I intend to get off in January.
Those who are long should be careful about adding to their holdings if they are already severely underwater.
My earlier comment about a 1.46 close today may be too aggressive. I do think we'll have another 8-15% day today, which would get MVIS back to $1.29-$1.36.
I'm watching the volume closely - if the buyers step in today there's always the possibility this closes ~$1.40-1.45.
Looks like this is setting up nicely for a quick run. I think a bottom was put in with the selling volume recently.
I have not changed my position about the long term prospects for MVIS.
I do believe we are starting on a run towards $2+ before CES. I left my stop at .99. I have not sold or added to the 10k shares I hold.
I will be careful - the markets are going to have their first real correction in a while in Q1 2014, and I don't want to be trapped in MVIS if they get flushed when the correction starts.
OK, I filled out my position. 10,000 shares at an average price of $1.12.
I have a stop set at $1.05. I am not looking to hold this more than about 1 month. If this thing is still stuck in the $1.10 - $1.20 range near the end of January, I'll probably sell my shares.
From here, I think they'll find a way to get it to $2. If there is an explosive move on a PR one day and it's over $2, I'm selling my shares. I am not keeping these shares long term, no matter what.