Cempra still has a long waiting time. It's 1st phase 3 results will be available Q2/Q3 2014 and its 2nd phase 3 in Q2/2015 and NDA in Q4 2015.. and launch in Q3-2016..Likely its ganearia trial will be funded by government...don't think if FDA would allow a early start...In june they had said if CAPB trials are successful FDA needs 1 trial for ganearia. which means ganeria trial will end in 2015/2016. They already have decent amount of cash. They may need some more in 2015, if they are going alone launching this product.
From a clinical risk standpoint, both their products look good esp TAKSTA. Do you know how different is the protocol for phase 2 from the indication the drug is already selling in Europe for decades ?
considering that the commercial revenue will only start in Q3-2016 , I really doubt if valuation will change significantly during this period even with the success of trials...it may double if CAPB succeeds and may triple if ganearia succeeds ...so from $220m to $660m and waiting time is at least until 2016?
SO I DON'T THINK CEMPRA AT THE CURRENT PRICE IS A GOOD ENTRY POINT.
Plus the safety is still a question mark as mentioned by em438 and maybe slightly (75%) tilted in company's favor.
still the wait for any big valuation changes is TOOOOOOOOO LOOOOOOOONG. And I know market and traders can't wait that LONG.
knowledgeable investor wrote on Solo's safety FWIW:
" To summarize his response. First, adding aniline would not be his first choice. Second, the addition of aniline does guarantee any safety issue. Third, even if there is a safety issue it is often a matter of degree and there are a lot of approved drugs with aliline. Fourth, Tylenol is a good example of one of those drugs (even though it is exactly an aliline but close enough to create same sort of chemical reaction). Fifth, he thought that if there was going to be an issue it would have appeared by now.
Obviously, this does not mean it is absolutely safe nor that a safety issue will still not come up. That being said, all of the information and data to date indicate that it is more likely not an issue."