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Orient Paper, Inc. Message Board

  • no_silencio_asensio no_silencio_asensio Sep 18, 2013 10:29 AM Flag

    ONP Book Value is irrelevant because of the VIE structure, and it is overpriced!

    Don't be fooled by ignoramuses that have experienced massive losses due to their lack of understanding on what a VIE means for foreign investors. Book value is equal to assets less liabilities. The assets of HBOP, a VIE of ONP, appear on ONP's balance sheet but there are no property right protections for ONP shareholders concerning HBOP. So book value is unknown, but it is far, far less than that presented on the balance sheets. You cannot make any valuation statements about ONP based on book value.

    All you have is the dividend. That is the only tangible metric to use to value ONP. As it is right now, ONP is massively overvalued. Pennies per share gives this stock a proper price given the size of the dividend and the risk associated with owning it. MSFT has a 3.39% dividend yield compared with ONP at 2.76%. Why in the world would you own ONP when MSFT is cheaper AND MUCH SAFER?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • BUMP! It is all relevant for reviw.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • ONP is spending massive amounts of its cash flow on building up its new plants. Once those capex projects are over, they could potentially raise the dividend four-fold if they wanted to. Please go analyze the company's cash flow generating capabilities. And look at them on an earnings basis. They're trading at 3x VERY depressed earnings levels. Once the new plants go online the margins will skyrockets (due to better capacity utilization and less waste) and this thing will trade below 1x on a p/e basis. And btw, MSFT is a done dinosaur. Good luck if you buy that one, that company is about to hit the can lol. NOK handset acquisition pretty much confirms how desperate MSFT seems to be.

      • 2 Replies to skiselev81
      • So you want some trading ideas. Ho about OuterWall (Red box) recently released bad numbers took a beeting but I think this is a over reaction, good time to buy, How about CROX, 13.20 is strong support for a company with no debt and strong cash flow. How about POT took a beeting down to 32.00, pays a 4% div and a 2 billion stock buyback and is the leading potash producer in the world. Pot is a good stock to sell covered calls in . Potash is leading fertilizer and there is no replacement.

        Anything is better than this ONP. The more they spend on CAPEX the less they earn. Remember the 360, It is going to be a game changer, ONP in one year of the 360 in operation made lessmoney then with out it. Before the 360 this stock was averaging 4.00.

        Skiselev81, I think you are EvelynHeeter's replacement.

        Sentiment: Sell

      • Once they get the new facilities built they will get re-zoned and the Chairman will save the company buy buying the existing facilities at a "fair Price" and doing a condo conversion. Maybe next time they accidently burn down. Something will happen requiring more capital expenditures with cash leaving the business, most likely to related parties

 
ONP
1.050.00(0.00%)Jun 30 4:00 PMEDT