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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • daytrade76125 daytrade76125 Jun 16, 2011 6:30 PM Flag

    Will there be a phase 3 runup like ONTY?

    ONTY continues to soar on a phase III runup while KERX falls. KERX has MORE phase III trials than ONTY so what's the deal? This fall from over 5 to 4.44 has been upsetting. We should be running up like ONTY!

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    • My Lord ONTY is 8.50 now. ONTY was 3.50 in mid March and has run up 5 dollars since then. That is what you call a phase 3 runup. Why the market believes in ONTY but not KERX is a mystery. KERX should be able to make a phase 3 run with colon cancer results coming out late in the year.

    • Well you're taking a big risk if you're holding for phase III results and approval. Longs don't seem to understand that many phase III trials fail. It's a huge risk. Take a look at GNVC. From 3.00 to 50 cent on phase III failure. I cant take that kind of risk with my money. I wish longs well and hope KERX gets approval. You can make a fortune or lose a fortune by holding for results. I do wish you luck. For me, I will get out when I'm on the side of profit (when it pops back up to 5.00) before the results. I rather take a sure small profit than gamble on making or losing a ton.

    • Daytrade said: "But when I hold stocks for many days or weeks, I usually lose money"
      As a long, I can't even understand this statement. You consider holding stocks for "many days or weeks" a long time? Most of us have held and accumulated KERX for well over a year.

      When KERX hits its approvals next year and soars, the longs will be selling our amassed shares and paying about 15% of our gain in taxes. You'll be throwing away around 40% of your gains in taxes on what...little profits as the stock has been bobbing up and down?

      It pretty funny, and probably why you whine so much. :)

    • Any guesses on where the bottom might be? I'd like to buy more but there's no use if it keeps falling at this pace. I would lose more than I already have. I need to see signs that it's bottoming out. Does anyone think it will bounce back soon? I find it puzzling that it's tanking like this because it's acting as if it's an ASCO stock. ASCO stocks suffer huge declines after ASCO, but KERX did not present at ASCO this year. Since it wasn't an ASCO stock this year and in nearing critical phase III data for colon cancer, I thought KERX would rise this summer. At the very least hold up. Seeing my account value crash because I bought this is extremely aggravating! 5.00 was supposed to be a resting point before a more significant phase III runup. If ONTY could do it, I don't know why KERX can't.

    • Maybe the market sees things a little differently.

      Zerenex over the long term is no slam dunk...I don't care what anyone says. Sure it works fine over a period of 30+/- days; but in many instances problems associated with perturbations to biological functions can take longer to surface i.e. Fosrenol. It is likely that other phosphate binders also worked fine over short term trials. The big issue is that people are assuming that if and when FDA approval is given, insurance companies are immediately going to accept the transition of patients to Zerenex. Like any new drug, Zerenex will be a 2nd, 3rd or even 4th tier treatment for some time to come because of the impending costs (I am assuming that as a new drug zerenex will be substantially higher in cost than the competition). Many people have been on Renvela for 5-6 years without complication so to assume that the day Zerenex is approved, Keryx will take control of this $1.5 billion market is just not correct.

      A lot of similar arguments can be made for perifosine. Problem with this drug is that it is undergoing more trials than just the advanced stage colorectal cancer and metastatic melanoma. You can bet that any dissappointments in other trials will have a negative impact on the stock price, and these are more likely to occur before perifosine is approved. Remember we are years out for perifosine approval.

      Finally, Keryx has already seen a meteoric and rapid rise in price. To those just coming on board, maybe this may not seem so true, but to those who have been following this stock since its low in 2009 ($0.11), we have seen a 45X increase in stock price. Not many companies can make that claim. Simply put, this price has peaked and will stay in a trading range till more clarity is given. I really believe that patience will be rewarded; however, I also believe that the reward will come in the form of a buyout rather than price response to drug approval.

      Anyway, just a few thoughts...not to bring you down, but to make make sure you're being realistic about forward looking possibilities and expectations. Most of the talk I read on this board never even entertains the possibility of "if approved", it only looks to "when approved". They then expect the market price to respond to the "when approved" instead of the "if approved". Sorry, history investing in drug companies says that in the end "if approved" was far more representative of the outcome than "when approved" (hope that made sense).


    • Just stop worrying. This is a typical 3-6 month dead period which it is pulling back. It will have its runup after the tree is shook. Just relax and add a little on the way down. It's going back up and we all know that. Way higher than $5.50. So patience.

    • Also the average 1 year price target for ONTY is 7.00 while KERX's is 10.00. So what gives here? This makes no sense.

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