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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • dmattingly62 dmattingly62 Apr 8, 2012 1:07 PM Flag

    The generic myth

    Their is already a generic on the market called Phoslo. If lower co pays or reimbursements are the argument, then why hasn't Phoslo limited the sales of other more expensive phosphate binders? The answer is that no two phosphate binders are the same with some having advantages/ disadvantages over others. Let's look at Renagel  because it is the market leader and expected to enter the market as a generic in 2014. Renagel has a high pill burden which often leads to non compliance as well as constipation in many patients. Renagel does not lead to increases in iron storage parameters. Patients need IV iron and/or ESA, which is expensive and burdensome. Patients may become intolerant or noncompliant and will need another binder. This leads us to Fosrenal which is typically given to patients after they were on Renagel. Fosrenal is chewable, which is perceived as a negative in this market, and also leads to lanthanum accumulation,  yet Fosrenal still generates more than 325MM in annual sales. Keryx hopes that Zerenex can be become the market leader. If the iron benefit holds up then it is possible. Zerenex would be the preferred binder and command a premium price because of the cost offsetting. Keryx would would trade multiples higher than current, depressed prices and would not remain an independent company for long. At a bare minimum there will always be patients who become intolerant to other binders and like Fosrenal, Zerenex would see a few hundred million in annual sales. This is what Oppenheimer and the other banks know. Feuerstein was right about Perifosine but he could've just as easily been wrong. He is wrong about Zerenex. In 2010 HGSI disappointed with their Hep C drug providing an opportunity for investors.  I was one of them who took a significant position. In my opinion, Perifosine's failure has created the best risk/ reward profile in biotech today. Last week I took a significant position in Keryx. Have a great day!

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    • I just realized that I said their is a generic version called PhosLo when I meant to say their is a generic version of  PhosLo.  Either way the argument still stands.

      I'll use this as an opportunity to make another point.  With the SPA, Zerenex should be on the market for a full year before generic Renvela in the US and more than two years in Europe. This is more than enough time to educate doctors and dialysis centers and to generate meaningful revenues. 

    • damatt..Excellent post. thank you for your DD and time. This makes all kinds of sense and is a pluse for KERX.

      • 1 Reply to snobordnutt
      • The underlying premise to your question echoes the fear mongering by  
        "bashers"wanting desperately to buy back shares to cover their ever growing short position.  If there is a repeat of the squeeze that took place a few years earlier in KERX, it could  set off a short squeeze that could shake the markets to the upside in such a way and thus be the catalyst that sets off a market bubble.  As of late, many of the talking heads have entertained the idea of a bio bubble coming to fruition which could mirror the intensity of the dot com bubble of the late 90s.  

        The fact being that this premise, which you have engaged discussion on, is the very same assumption that the blog writers have been endorsing.   This leads us to believe that the hedge funds have once again over extended themselves going short in  Keryx  BioPharmaceuticals.  The last time they sounded this desperate, having to fabricate fairytales, we witnessed a 75 times price per share increase in KERX.   In this current market and at the higher price level  of near $2, as compared to  what it was a few years back, a squeeze of $2 to $150 would be unprecedented  and leading to  total exhuberance in the sector.  Such  exhuberance would naturally carry over into other sectors as Keryx  has been  the single  most watched equity  by the public for several years.  Such a stir in the markets could drive equities like AAPL to over $1000 per share and God only knows what would happen with the Facebook IPO if it hits at the same time.

        To clear things up about this premise, I must add,  it is an assumption that the blog writers invented and which contradicts all logic.  A company does not throw millions of dollars at a drug trial on a premise ,only, that their drug in trial constitutes it's own distinction worthy above and beyond any others already on the market.   This is why market research firms are employed instead of picking up the phone and calling  a blog writer, willing to work for a pizza pie and a six pack of domestic beer, for his decision whether the iron based drug for renal drug disease  is indeed in a class all it's own.  Of course common sense dictates that if a patient recieves benefit from one formulation over another, they are not the same drug.  However, astute CEOs like Ron Bentsur, who recently backed up his own confidence in the drug by dropping a large sum of cash for shares on the open market, goes through the  necessary steps of employing the expertise of those most knowledgable in the industry to insure that common sense dictates in the real world. 

         A perfect example would be oxycontin vs. oxycodone.  While oxycontin is considered the brand name and oxycodone the generic, it is in fact not a true generic.  The active ingrediants are not exact and one is time released while the other is not.  You will find most insurance companies will foot the bill for both because they, in fact, are two different drugs in which one renders certain benefits over the other to fulfilll specific patient needs.  The difference in price between the two are are quite significant also, making it an even stronger case against the blog writers' fabricated positions based on their fairytale mentalities.  In actuality, these mentalities have been formulated in an poorly executed attempt to fulfill the agenda of their either organized crime bosses  caught short or big pharma licking their lips in anticipation for the Keryx buyout.  

        The blog writers can put to rest all their nonsense now as the shareholders can not be scammed.  We aim to get our fair share of a $1.5B Worldwide Market if we reject the buyout offer set to come as being unfair and unacceptable.  Legit shareholders are more than welcomed to copy and paste this response to the bloggers and bashers in much the same manner that they have been spamming their newly created fairytale, which borders on being  criminal in nature, across the internet.

 
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