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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • bosiedude bosiedude Oct 20, 2012 10:59 AM Flag

    Zerenex's chances...

    Hello, I'm a longtime lurker out there, but rarely post. I'm an investor in several biotechs now (and, btw, I'm a physician). Recently I've had my share of successes (Vascepa, Belviq, etc) and failures (Perifosine, Synavive), so I've had a roller coaster ride this year, as usual.
    I think that Zerenex is one of the best bets out there now, if not THE best. It has to do with the nature of this drug and the trial. I just don't see much of the usual risks. This is NOT like a cancer trial, all of which are notoriously risky. This is NOT a "subjective" trial, inherently risky, where patients have to rate their symptoms --think Libigel and Synavive, both catastrophes, even though the drugs may in fact actually work despite trial failure. In comparison, Zerenex is as clean a trial as there is... no cancer, no subjectivity... It's all about well-known phophate binding, iron levels, and blood tests. There is virtually NO subjectivity at all. Phase 1 should mirror Phase 2 should mirror phase 3, should mirror Japan, etc...
    That being said, although Zerenex could easily become first in class, it won't be a home run or 10-bagger from here. It's not THAT big. But a triple--definitely....

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Much of what you say is true however, KERX is an easy 10 bagger. I know the flip floppers do not want to hear this and many will find themselves chasing the pps as many of the wiser shareholders sit back and laugh. 'nuff said...

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Thats the same message I've been saying for months. The problem investors have is determining whether Zerenex will be a commercial success once approved. If Zerenex can demonstrate an iron sparing effect then it will be 1st in class & the generic threat is a non-factor. If not then Zerenex should still be able to generate $300 million in annual sales.

      • 2 Replies to whogo70
      • I do not think there is a question about Zerenex being a commercial success...I guess it depends on how you define "success". Zerenex may indeed show some benefits with respect to iron levels, but preliminary data indicates that this will not be unilateral among patients. One earlier trial showed modest increases in serum ferritin, serum iron, and TSAT levels in patients receiving the highest dosages i.e. 6-8 g, and that 40% of patients exhited "intermittent holidays" from iron therapy, but there was no indication that any were exclusively removed. In the end Z will probably work on some patients and maybe even postpone the use of iron therapy in others, but I do not see it as a game changer for most. In general, iron absorption tends to be lower with ferric (Fe3+) salts than with ferrous (Fe2+) salts which is part of the problem. The positive is that Z seems to have fewer side effects, can control metabolic acidosis and works as well as Renegel so it should be able to engender 20-25% of the market...provided that other iron based phosphate binders do not enter the space. At least two others are currently in testing that will not be protected by Keryx /Zerenex patent rights. I assume others will follow. Given Renegel goes off patent in late 2014, and bundling will probably benefit generics, Z will have a small window to makes is mark as a viable alternative.

      • Other than the markets having a really #$%$ day,would you feel comfortable in saying that the 8% sell-off Friday was mostly due to the false story submitted on ZIOP . I plan on buying more Monday.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I meant to say a triple is possible short term. Longer term, if it does become first in class, it could go much, much higher

3.425+0.185(+5.71%)Feb 12 3:59 PMEST