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Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Message Board

  • jffle120 jffle120 Jan 24, 2013 10:21 AM Flag

    Newbie here, should I average down or sell?

    I've been following the stock for awhile and after breaking the $3 resistance then gapping up I decided to jump in but now i'm in red. What are the real investors thinking of the result chances? should I average down or sell or a loss.

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    • Never average down on losing stocks. Odds are you will lose more money. Let it go and put the stop loss, and move on to other stocks.

    • tw895 Jan 24, 2013 1:24 PM Flag

      it may be on its way back now , bottom for the day is in buy buy buy

      • 1 Reply to tw895
      • This should be expected. Without news the stock remains in play for large hedge funds who make lots of pennies by selling high and buying back low. Look for the stock to again have a volital day tomorrow but I bet it will be more up than down. As for putting all eggs in one basket, that is never a good idea. Wait for tomorrows up and sell some off and hold some for the possible future return. Always know it is a biotech and that is a boom or bust stock. I personally see it as an eventual 7 to 9 range stock but only after some good news. I have lots of investments but enjoy Kerx because it was touted to me by a son so I will stick with it or rag him for a long time if it goes bust. I honestly do believe that Kerx has an up side but it's very volitiity makes it attractive for hedge funds. If you look who the major investors are you can see it has some serious believers. Good luck and the shorts are having a field day right now all the way to the bank. A surprise good luck news conference and they will be without pants.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • jffle,

      Look at the yahoo headlines for Keryx and pull up the article entitled, "Zerenex Phase III Data Imminent; Odds Still High For Keryx To Succeed With This Drug" (sorry the mb seems not to permit posting sites any longer). It will give you another perspective. It aligns with one or more posts on this thread.

      I tend to look at things a bit differently and more simplistically. Far too often I see how experts with much more experience than me and far more data than is available to me, use multiples and projected sales, book values, price to sales projections, PEs, PEGs etc. to arrive at a stock price. In the end, all these projections are based upon standards or norms in a particular industry that may or may not hold true for a particular stock within that industry. Nonetheless a benchmark is required to make these assumptions. There is no magic bullet to project into the future. A good example is what is happening to APPL today (I do not own shares). They basically met their numbers...maybe a bit short in places, and the projected sliding numbers going into next quarter maybe 10% for the quarter only; however, the stock is down 36% from its high and will likely continue to trend lower simply on perception. It is still a cash cow. All the expert analysts that had projected AAPL hitting $800, $875, even as high as $1000 are all back tracking and treading water and having to cut their projections as we speak to $500, $525, etc. Point is, with all the information available to them, they still did not see it coming. Go figure. Same thing happend to Google. It was supposed to be well over $1000/sh....7-8 years ago. Look at the Facebook mess.

      Now you ask about projected numbers for a company that has no track record other than for the inability to get 2 other drugs through PIII trials; has no other drug on the market and nothing in the pipeline; a company that many seem to own not because of the potential for Zerenex but because of the potential of a buyout....and you ask for projected stock values??? For me I purchased this company for the potential windfall from 2 drugs, Perifosine and Zerenex. I got partially burned on one but felt the second would make up the difference.

      In the end this is a crapshoot. Role the dice and see what comes up. I have maintained all along that the stock market is legalized gambling. No one on this board or on any board will ever be able to predict with any certainty or reproduceability what the price of any stock will be tomorrow or next year. If they did, they would not be screwing around with yahoo message boards. Just look at the data in front of you. If you do, you will quickly understand that the probability of success for Z is much higher than the probability of failure....nothing in this world is a lock. But, with that said, no one can predict how much someone else will pony up for that success. Look to the numbers/projections on this board alone and you will see the discrepency in trying to reasonably and adequately evaluate that success.

      So, take your best shot and live with it. Carry tight stops if it worries you....then relax and watch the blinken lights.


    • Jffle, since you have such a large position in KERX now, you might want to consider selling some covered calls on at least some of those shares. Even most IRA's will allow covered call writing, and it''s just a level 1 options requirement. Right now, you could sell the $4.00 Feb calls for .20-.25 which could help average out those fluctuations in the stock, especially if we don't get something noteworthy by Valentine's day. Sure, if the stock trades above $4.00 by then, you'll lose those shares @$4.00 each, but you bought them under $4.00 anyway, and if the stock doesn't make it to $4.00 by expiration, you still keep the premium. You may also want to consider buying some cheap protective puts, so if things don't go so well, they will act somewhat like an insurance policy. I think investing now is riskier than ever, but I like to buffer my risk as wisely as I can...good luck.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Jffle,
      Right now just sell, wait a few days and buy back around 3 again. When u buy back again buy half position because u should always have money left over to get back in the game no matter how good u think this investment is. Don't be greedy, because u can never be sure what the data reveals. Another mistake most newbies make is they don't cut their losses and just go down with it. I am not sure what price point u bought but ur losses can't be more than 10-15 percent at this point. Also do ur research in advance and get in early in a stock. Getting in while its moving or has already run up is the worst thing to do. Just my two cents.

    • This pullback is a joke. Average down my friend. You can't expect it to keep up 15% gains 3 days in a row and if you get that you are porbably looking at a 20% correction on the fourth or fifth day. Results due any time. Almost no chance of anything that would bring the stock down. All still upside from here and significant upside at that. Check my other posts if curious how much upside there is. GL

    • Well, it all depends on how much money you are willing to risk as a loss. Simple as that. Personally, I don't understand people asking these questions. If someone has $100,000, and foolishly made this stock 40% of his or her portfolio, I'd tell the person to sell 30% or more, but keep some. But we don't know your age, your percentage in KERX, etc, so it is hard to judge. What IS clear is that these boards are filled with a mixture of insight and often immature posturing, so just screen out the people who post on hope more than on research into the stock --

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to enigmatic6099
      • Thanks for the response, I actually put all my 401k egg in this one basket as I have been following it for a while and from the prelim study results and what has been written about the upcoming results I decided to go all in with over 100k. I know these boards are full of pumpers and bashers and was just trying to get some feedback from someone who's really in this stock as an investor and not a day trader. I was torn between putting all my money either in this stock or in TTNP and so far it appears I might have chosen the wrong one.

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