The results with phase lll and Zerenex were spectacular. The ONLY negative in the study was the complaint from FEW patents of black stools. This is a reconfiguration of ferric citrate and NOT a dangerous drug. Go to any pharmacy and you can buy the drug OTC but not like Zereenex which is quite unique. This lowers the chances of FDA disapproval. The drug seems destined to be successful and it is CHEAPER, works better than the generics. Big pharma understands that this is not a giant speculation but an eventual success. Finally the patents are secure, the intellectual property will keep it till 2025 and it has world wide rights except inn Japan where it is a partner and a few other southeast Asia countries. Kidney disease is a growing problem and Zerenex is one of the new drugs that will help this growing population. Is the market 40 b that I do not know but the company clearly is a double digit eventual buy.
I see this a prolonged process. Kerx knows it has a winner, what they suspect is a blockbuster.
The problem is that BP wants it at the winner price and Kerx will want to hold out for the blockbuster price. Who will blink? Likely neither short term. Therefore the results will roll in and Kerx's belief will be validated and BP will be forced to pay up in the end. Unfortunately I do not beleive we will see max shareholder value because the negotiations will require compromise by Kerx for the "minimal" risk that may be out there. My "out of the box" dream is that we somehow remain Kerx and this bad boy is a $100.+ stock someday.
But I know we need the infrastucture and resources to bring this to market the right way. This is the most intringuing stock I have ever owned and I am glad i stuck with it along with many others on the MB.
Like most corporations, It depends on the size of their war chest. Some are willing to take more risk than others. Big Pharma lives in a world of its own. When the venture works out, the money flows in at phenomenal rates. On the other hand if the venture fails, heads roll. Fortunately, They research the heck out of everything they do.
They most likely wouldn't or they would become a "Small Pharma" real quick. Really the smart thing is to make an offer with contingencies. The PPS will increase if thois happens this way there are no risks.
That is a difficult question to answer at this time. I agree that it seems like a lot of risk involved right now, but I think there will be a lot of changes between now and FDA approval. One analyst (I don't remember which one) factored a 90% chance of approval, and I think that is fairly accurate. I think that once pre-dialysis results are released, the PPS will begin the run-up to a point that, come FDA approval time, KERX shares will not be seen as the "bargain" it is right now. So, while I do think there is a good chance they will be bought out pre-approval, I think the answer to that question will be much clearer around the end of the year. Namely, the pre-dialysis results are the biggest risk in big pharma's eyes for a buyout, I believe. Once they are released, start looking for buyout offers before PPS gets out of hand.