1. The Phase III results were stellar, maximizing approval chances and sales prospects given approval.
2. KERX IP protection in the United States (see the PropThink conference call write-up today).
3. Zenerex would save $750M in the US alone on lower ESA and IV iron use. (This figure goes even higher when dialysis center personnel costs are factored in.) It’s hard to conceive of a reason why a dialysis center would throw this much money away.
4. Ron Bentsur recently stated that KERX was grossly undervalued based on its European prospects alone. KERX would have European exclusivity for 10 or 11 years.
5. The $1.5 billion dialysis market is growing at around 7-8% / year worldwide. This means that it’s a $3.0 billion market in 9-10 years (using the rule of 72). And, I wouldn’t be surprised if the $1.5 billion figure that’s being thrown around is itself dated by a year or two.
6. The pre-dialysis market may be 4x as large! KERX’ Japanese partner has already filed for this indication.
7. KERX retains the option of going it alone in the US, given that it only has to market to and deal with the relatively few dialysis center companies - not every PCP.
8. The derisking from KERX’s 3-continent (so far) strategy.
excellent list for the fundamentals!
If look at the trading aspects, add the following:
-inst holding increases
-PPS goes higher while short interest increases in the past 2 months
-the PPS curve is very bullish in both short and long terms
-analyst rating: 4 strong buy and 4 buy with current mean target at 12.63 and mean target at 14.00.
upgrade and price target raise will be triggered by the new development including pre-dialysis data from both Japan and PII
Kerx, a hidden gem, no reason not to have it when the street treat as marble.