Don't forget that the total dialysis market is growing at 6%/year in the developed countries and 12% in emerging markets. So $1.5B becomes $3.0B in 10 years. And this doesn't count the pre-dialysis market which is up to 4 times larger.
world-wide phosphate binder market is ~1.5B...Zerenex has a good chance of getting 40% of that market...potentially Z can also address CKD market, that remains to be seen, some of the CKD market is included in the 1.5B number as CKD patience using phosphate binders off label
With a worldwide license except for a partnership and for several Pacific rim countries, Keryx has a potential that could exceed $5B easily. Pre dialysis will be a key and there. Are indications that it too will be like the Phase lll study results. If you read the Panion initial study results and inventors expectations you understand the unique formulation and bonding properties of Zerenex. Again in the phase III study the only negative results were black stools in some patients. It had 100% tolerability and patents at the end of the study requested and were granted the right to continue with the drug. The fact that it actually may be cheaper to take Zerenex as opposed to the generics is because so fewer pills are needed with Zerenex. Kidney disease is a very serious reality and it is unfortunately growing. The market is expanding and Zerenex comes into the market at a key time.
I have seen estimates of $700 million to $1 Billion--and that is based just on the number of current patients needing treatment. This also does not include the potential revenue from predialysis patients as that study data is coming in any day. That could increase the total revenue by 50-100%. For this company and for the shareholders Zerenex iasn't just a home run---it's a GRAND SLAM---and for the shorts---it's a strikeout looking with bases loaded and a fastball straight down the middle---UGLY!!