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Star Scientific, Inc. (CIGX) Message Board

  • mdeangee mdeangee Jul 15, 2012 3:17 PM Flag

    Story getting old

    i hold over 10k shares but am starting to get tired of all the personal stories of success. I wouldn't have a problem with this if we had hard proof from trials to back these stories. But as of now the stock is overpriced. Even when RJR gets rejected it is still far from guarenteed that we can prove infringement. As far as Anatabloc we need the trial results to be in our favor. We need it to be a significant percent more effective then placebo to really hammer home the point to be able to get to the medical profession. For now we just have a bunch of people with stories and a lot of assumptions from pieces of quotes of other people. I have never seen so many people 100 percent convinced something works before we get the results of trials. Never seen a stock board that doesn't have one long that can't give an opinion that there is a possibility that the data from the trials might not be as convincing as we all might hope. I'm just saying...

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    • I hope the cruise ship version works awesome. We shall see soon enough. If it does we will do a moon shot like arna did.

    • I want to comment on Chron's (CR) and Alz (AD) but don't want to add to "page 2" so putting it here.

      The comment starting a discussion of those maladies misses the fact that AD has been a prime target for anatabine therapy since the ORIGINAL patents covering use as an MAOI, in late 1990s and August of 2005. It is a primary reason Star started Rock Creek, along with the formulation leading to CigRx. I believe that RI wanted to try anatabine initially because of its MAOI properties, and they have been planning the AD trials for many years.

      The actual setting up of the trials apparently began more than 2 years ago ... long before anecdotal evidence of high efficacy in CR began to trickle in.

      Because they are collecting "other indications" of anti-inflammatory (AI) action in Flint, they are probably hoping for enough indications of efficacy in CR and the like to spur interest of other potential partners. Obviously, if Star has to do the clinical trials in the dozen or more major diseases that seem to be yielding to anatabine therapy, it's going to take a long time (but well worth it if that's how it goes).

      "Anatapure" (trademarked) is presumably pure anatabine to use in products by licensees. I would hope that parties interested in the "other" results from Flint would want to jump on the train. Obviously no announcement of a partnership based on that can be made until it is available.

      I too am antsy about CR. It seems like it may be one of the quickest "big problems" to do trials on, because it responds so very quickly and helps so much.

      Interestingly, I just got off the phone 15 minutes ago and was told (third hand) that the young lady whose CR case I began detailing last October has just been to the doctor (who had cancelled all her spring appointments), and he told her they are not doing ANY tests, and that he wanted to see her again "in a YEAR"!

      (That means that since starting Anatabloc she has gone from constant problems and testing and procedures to NO testing since beginning Anatabloc treatment.)

      I was told she is not completely problem free ... cramps and pain sometimes ... but gee, Taco Bell will do that for you occasionally (and she is taking either 3 or 2 tabs a day, still, I presume [3 when she went to Europe this spring I know]).

      Naturally I am anxious to know what her doctor thinks. I will give it a while and see if I can find anything out.

      For any who think Anatabloc is too expensive, she has gone from likely $6-7 thousand dollars a year in costs to $30 dollars or so a month, not to mention not having to see the inside of a doctors office for A YEAR now. She will spend her freshman year here at U.T. coming up, happy and relatively care free. She may not have been able to make it at all otherwise.

      This is only a matter of time, and the fireworks at the milestones will be gratifying.

      • 1 Reply to Izof_texas
      • I just had an intertesting (likely) realization about the AD trials and why they were delayed so long.

        As I just said, it appears that the AD trials had been planned for for years, based on the theory that anatabine's MAOI property (and anecdotal and/or epidemiological evidence from smokeless tobacco use) may mean efficacy to some degree.

        I'll bet the discovery of the A-I property of anatabine hit the "reset" button on the AD trials. They probably had to redo all the paperwork and the plan for taking data, and perhaps had to revamp the whole procedure (and get re-approved, etc.).

    • "i hold over 10k shares but am starting to get tired of all the personal stories of success."

      how can one tire of personal health success stories? i understand the desire for study results, but they are on the way. it takes time.

      is there a possibility the data may not be as convincing as we might hope? of course. if there were not, i'm certain the stock price would presently loiter somewhere in the double digits. so overpriced now? the potential upside sways me to believe otherwise.

      true, after much dd, personal experiences, and credible studies and sources elsewhere, we are an optimistic and hopeful bunch. but 100%? no...if so, i would be living in a tent and walking to work tomorrow, for my house and car i would have sold to purchase additional shares.

      and don't forget...the mice seem convinced themselves. granted, they're mere mice, but they've already received personal results...no placebo effect. they don't even know what a placebo effect is. :)

    • Something is missing in the discussion here. Everyone is ignoring the comments from the Harvard Club on May 8th 2012, to big institutional firms in NYC. Call me nuts but we may have had comments here on such. I believe when JW made his comments on an International tobacco deal is expected this summer, it had zero to do with RJR who has always been difficult to deal with. Albeit now a lot has changed.
      So we are well into summer now and were told a deal is expected.
      Music is still playing, who is leaving the room?

      Good point too, riprising.

    • Yeah, I was in and out of it a couple of times when it was STSI. At that time I hadn't really been able to syncronize my "buy lo-sell hi" strategy with the stock. The potential for A-bloc and court verdict getting set aside didn't really register with me until later. I was able to get a substantial position, for me at least, with a basis 3.50. A dip like you foresee would make me happy. I'll finish loading the truck.

    • good advice. Nice long term approach.

      Thanks.

    • Yes, I am holding not selling. I am wary of what RJR will do.

      I was in and out of STSI through June 2009. I have mostly been dollar cost averaging since early 2010 across several accounts and my average cost is under $2.50. If you search my posts you will see that I have been taking Abloc since early September 2011. (ordered day 1- #195).

      I would like to add more at the right price, but I can't help but see the settlement talks as a way for RJR to stab Star in the back again. I could be wrong, and if the anticipated SCOTUS ruling date was scheduled prior to the potential settlement date I am sure my approach would differ.

      Regardless of the huge promise of Abloc, at $4.56 I believe there is at about $1 worth of settlement optimism built into the current share price – possibly more.

      I think RJR's "friends" are talking to the shorts and they see this August as a good opportunity to inflict some damage on Star and make money at the same time.

      If you look at the CIGX chart over the past five years you will see that each time there is a "milestone" on the tobacco front the stock reacts in a major way.

      Just look at August 26th of last year. When the court's decision came down, even though the patents were deemed valid, the stock got hammered – down 50% during the day.

      Abloc was not even commercially available, but there was plenty of reason to know that it could be something special, so I added CIGX shares at $1.57.

      With Abloc now performing nicely in the market, I doubt that CIGX will get pounded all the way down to $3 but remember, on April 26th of this year, CIGX opened at $2.08 and then settlement talks were announced.

      I don’t think the shorts can push it under $3 but I expect them to try very hard to do that.

      I feel that all longs should be realistic and keep some dry powder in order to be ready for another extremely volatile day and another unbelievable buying opportunity.

    • I think he means Holding but not selling.
      I agree.

    • Clarification;I think those expecting settlement are in a very tiny minority;this baby is going to court.

      I'm looking for a quick, intra-day pullback on the break off news but nothing major.
      Slight move up on the SCOTUS rejection and the stock behaving on Anatabloc acceptance both medically and by the consumer.

    • So just to be clear;you think most people believe that RJR WILL settle before SCOTUS?


      And when they don't the price will drop big?


      Interesting.I would think rather the opposite.

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