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Star Scientific, AŞ Message Board

  • chipper4747 chipper4747 Feb 1, 2013 4:41 PM Flag

    Summary data for 2012/2013 by Month, Quarter and Year

    2012/2013 Average daily orders by month:

    January: 74.9
    February: 124.8
    March: 115.8
    April: 125.7
    May: 159.7
    June: 183.6
    July: 177.8
    August: 209.4
    September: 174.3
    October: 174.3
    November 255.1
    December: 400.9

    January: 497.2

    2012 Average daily orders by quarter:

    Q1 (Jan - Mar): 106.0 (9640 orders)
    Q2 (Apr - Jun): 156.3 (14219 orders)
    Q3 (Jul - Sept): 187.2 (17222 orders)
    Q4 (Oct - Dec): 276.3 (25423 orders)

    2013 Average daily orders by quarter:

    Q1 (Jan - Mar): 497.2 (thru January)

    Average daily orders by year:

    2011: 73.5 (9300 orders between Aug 30th - Dec 31)
    2012: 181.7 (66504 orders)
    2013: 497.2 (Thru January)

    2012/2013 Average daily sales for first week of month/last 3 weeks of month after start of GNC sales:

    April: 102.3/132.3
    May: 92.6/179.3
    June: 168.3/188.3
    July: 173.3/179.5
    August: 189.9/215.2
    September: 179.9/172.6
    October: 171.3/175.2
    November: 216.7/266.8
    December: 319.7/424.6
    January: 460.5/514.7 ("first week" for January was 1-10 January)

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    • Hi Chipper....While reading all the numbers of sales of Anatabloc all I can conclude is that sales are increasing rapidly and therefore revenue will also increase. Am I right in thinking the upcoming earnings report will be positive for us longs? It seems to me it will be very positive looking at the sales numbers and growth potential. Please offer some insight as to why to stay long. the share price continuing to drop is frustrating. We have retirement money invested so I have time to wait it out. Thanks so much for your attention and work compiling numbers for us.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to jgdalbora
      • jgdalbora,
        Please look at my post from 6 Feb on this thread as to the factors one should consider when looking at the rise in online orders for Anatabloc. Without insights provided by management, we are pretty much left on our own to figure out how well STSI is doing. I cannot answer your question as to whether the upcoming earnings report "will be positive for us longs". You need to define what "positive" means in your statement, and that in turns pretty much requires what expectations are for the ER, and then what some are projecting for the ER (whether higher or lower).
        In short, I cannot do your due diligence for you. I believe there is adequate information and opinions on this site from knowledgeable posters who can provide a wide range of opinions on STSI, along with their justifications. It's up to YOU to figure out whether the company is meeting YOUR thesis for investing in STSI. You did have a THESIS for this company before investing in it, yes? If so, then perhaps rising online sales is part of that thesis. And if that is true, then the current price shouldn't matter, as long as the company is meeting your expectations. My one and only expectation for the upcoming ER is that revenues will be higher than the previous quarter. You can see my actual revenue prediction in that 6 Feb post.
        Good luck!

    • The product seems to be catching on.

    • I think we are going to have to do some adjusting given the increase in the number of pills per bottle or box (from 200 to 300), I know that I was taking between two and three a day, so I'd order about every 2 or 3 months. Now that will move up to every 3 to 4 months, or so. So the number of orders should drop accordingly, making the growth seem to slow down. I don't know how to do the math, I'll leave that to you heavies. I think the price per pill drop will help increase sales from those who were sitting on the fence because of price.


      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • So if we look at this truly analytically, we should look at the fact that 4q 2012 had a 47.5% increase in daily orders compared to Q3.

      Let's take that one step further and contrast it with Q3 earnings... Net sales were 1.748m

      Increase that by 47.5% and we're at $2.57 million in net sales.

      Pretty simple logic, but it might work.

      For background, there was a 19.8 increase in average daily orders from Q2 to Q3, but revenue from Q2 to Q3 only grew 9.8% (1.591 to 1.748)

      So, maybe a realistic estimate for Q4 would be $2.4m

      Just a guess, but it is based in logic

      • 2 Replies to scotttk
      • Well, it was worth checking back and I've gotta say that I'm a bit disappointed with net sales in 4q being just 2.0m as opposed to the 2.4m that would have followed the progression outlined above.

        It seems to me that they are really counting on the free samples (as orders in the sequence numbers) to attempt to attain some sort of adoption.

        The question is, what kind of adoption rate are they getting out of people who order the free samples... and that's the $64,000,000 question folks...

        Still not the hockey stick most want, but the 1q numbers should give us a little better sense as to how many of what would have been sample orders in 4q might have turned into actual orders in 1q.

        Sentiment: Hold

      • or to be more conservative and figure that revenue again increases by roughly half the rate of the increase in orders, so about 24% in this case, that would give a Q4 estimate of about $2.15m

    • Loving those numbers!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Just doesn't get old looking at these numbers--thanks, Chipper!