Fri, Mar 14, 2014, 5:27 AM EDT - U.S. Markets open in 4 hrs 3 mins

# Star Scientific, Inc. (CIGX) Message Board

• chipper4747 chipper4747 Mar 17, 2013 4:59 AM Flag

## A note on average daily order rates

A note to those who are fretting about the average daily order rate "declining".

I've already gone through the math that showed why the 300ct bottles have lead to a drop in the rate. We all knew this was coming when the company decided to make this move. Now here are some key questions.

1) Taking the average of the average daily order rate (of 200ct bottles) from Dec 2012, Jan 2013, and Feb 2013, what level of 300ct orders can we expect (as a minimum) down the road?

Answer: Averaging the Dec - Feb 200ct data, we get 462.3 orders per day. Translating that quantity of pills into 300ct bottles, we get an average of 308.2 orders per day. Yet we currently stand at 344.3 orders per day, which is a 11.7% increase. Thus, based on the apples-to-apples comparison of pills bought, there is no doubt whatsoever that demand for Abloc continues to increase.

2) Everything else being equal, when would the average daily order rate based on 300ct bottles bottom out?

Answer: Let's assume that people started transferring to 300ct bottles on 1 March. Let's also assume that the average Abloc user has 2 months of supply on hand. Then 1/2 of the users will transfer during March and the other half will transfer during April. Thus, by 1 May, everyone will be using 300ct bottles, which provides 50 days of usage (at 6 per day). The March transfers will reorder in late May to early June; the April transfers in late June to early July. Thus, everything else being equal, the bottoming of the avg daily rate will occur during the late May to early July time frame. BUT we all know that new users are being added to the mix on a daily basis, thus it is my opinion that we will see ups and downs in the average daily rate over the next 4 months, with the underlying trend being to the upside. Picture an oscillating sine wave with a period of about 50 days, with decreasing crest -- trough wave heights, until the wave decreases to a inclined straight line. (Continued)

SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
• I think GNC is picking up more of the orders now. I for one ordered 4 bottles through them recently because they were running a special.

• Chipper, here is a new order.
A20132411021033
\$79.99
Order Date 03/16/13
SKO: ABO4.recurring

Thanks for all of your work.