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Star Scientific, AŞ Message Board

  • chipper4747 chipper4747 Apr 2, 2013 3:17 AM Flag

    Summary data for 2012/2013 by Month, Quarter and Year (through March 2013)

    2012/2013 Average daily orders by month:

    January: 74.9
    February: 124.8
    March: 115.8
    April: 125.7
    May: 159.7
    June: 183.6
    July: 177.8
    August: 209.4
    September: 174.3
    October: 174.3
    November 255.1
    December: 400.9

    January: 497.2
    February: 488.4
    March: 326.1

    2012 Average daily orders by quarter:

    Q1 (Jan - Mar): 106.0 (9640 orders)
    Q2 (Apr - Jun): 156.3 (14219 orders)
    Q3 (Jul - Sept): 187.2 (17222 orders)
    Q4 (Oct - Dec): 276.3 (25423 orders)

    2013 Average daily orders by quarter:

    Q1 (Jan - Mar): 435.4 (39187 orders)

    Average daily orders by year:

    2011: 73.5 (9300 orders between Aug 30th - Dec 31)
    2012: 181.7 (66504 orders)
    2013: 492.8 (39187 orders thru March)

    2012/2013 Average daily sales for first week of month/last 3 weeks of month after start of GNC sales:

    April: 102.3/132.3
    May: 92.6/179.3
    June: 168.3/188.3
    July: 173.3/179.5
    August: 189.9/215.2
    September: 179.9/172.6
    October: 171.3/175.2
    November: 216.7/266.8
    December: 319.7/424.6
    January: 460.5/514.7 ("first week" for January was 1-10 January)
    February: 523.4/476.7
    March: 338.7/321.0 ("first week" for March was 1-9 March)

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    • After reviewing the March data and the post I wrote concerning the impact of the 300ct bottles on overall orders, it appears that my assumptions about future sales do not need modification. They remain:

      1) Assuming that regular Abloc users using the 200ct bottles will run out of Abloc over a 2.5 month time frame. The assumptions here are that these users use 6 pills per day and have an average of 2 bottles on hand.

      2) When ordering refills with 300ct bottles during March, April, and the first part of May, these folks will then have enough pills to last them for 50 days, so that their next order would occur during May - Sept rather than Apr - July, thus spreading out the same volume of orders over more months. The result? Lower monthly avg daily order rates.

      3) Come Sept the impact of the transition will have disappeared. At that point, month-to-month averages can be compared with statistical validity. Meanwhile, the interim daily order rates will bounce around according to the distribution of 200ct users over the March - April time frame. I can assure you it is not uniform. So the ups and downs of the daily order rates are to be expected.

      4) When the thyroid paper comes out and slaps some scientific credibility on the stock, the increase in Abloc sales from new users will wipe out the effects of this transition phase and cause the previous upward trend in sales to resume.

      5) While silence ensues in the meantime, the stock is subject to HFT, manipulation, and other nefarious activities that can only be overcome with volume buying instigated by personal satisfaction with the product and/or hedge fund buying based on the science. So keep your eye on the institutional holdings as well as our own avg daily order rates: word-of-mouth advertising leading to waves of new buyers can cause the daily order rates to resume its uptrend sooner than September.

    • Thanks for all the great work you do on this, chipper!

      Great to see that the average orders per month are now almost double where they were just five months earlier, especially considering that the new 300-tablet bottles have lessened the frequency of orders from regular Abloc users!