It would meander around here - maybe drop out of the ascending channel for awhile until the next month's PRASM numbers and then earnings come out and we would be back to a stock with a pure price target of 18.
Vote this down. Hedge funds are going to vote for it (especially Tepper who holds unsecured AMR debt), Parker and Kirby are going to vote for it, and some very high percentage of people do not even send their ballots back in so Board will vote for them - this is a done deal.
Sorry.. I kind of miss your question...
Why would LCC shareholder vote this down? IMO... nah... not gonna happen.
But if their did.... then LCC would dive and AMR would rise....no? AMR would keep all for itself.... But... Oh... the debt and liabilities.....would reappear.... What a mess.....!!!
Let's not think of it... Merger will happen.
The question was in the topic ... glad you figured it out.
If you think LCC would drop ... how low would the multiple drop to? Actually, I'll wait for the prospectus, but there are plenty of other stocks out there to reallocate funds ... I'm indifferent to whether the merger goes through or not.
I would think absent a merger it would be questionable if the amr unsecured creditor would be made whole to the degree they are now, and aamrq would have less of a chance to rise without synergies.
Had I known... I would have mortgaged the farm and bought AARMQ a month ago.... LOL...
This is nuts... AARMQ is a pure gamble...crazy russian roulette game... IMO it will end up near worthless... how can it not?
LCC?..... I see nothing happening until "some day" shorts will cover that the price will jump and never look back.... For now I am out of airlines... sold UAL last week and LCC too.... Wait and see.... I rotated my assets into energy... coal, oil, NG.
Silver + Gold might be at a good point of entry....
The way I understand it, aamrq will get an allocation of shares which will give it about a $1 value per old share. As soon as all the creditors are made whole, all other gains in the new AA stock held by the creditors will flow to the old aamrq stock holders. I would guess if the "new" AA shares go to $24 and the creditors are made whole at $14 then aamrq is worth $10. It may not be exactly like that, but isn't that essentially it?