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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

  • wgrsh wgrsh Feb 21, 2013 2:37 PM Flag

    At least fuel is coming back ...

    Jet fuel is dropping back into LCC's Q1 guidance ... maybe it'll go lower ... or maybe I just jinxed it.

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    • Save me the trouble of looking it up - was guidance 3.15 to 3.25 or 3.20 to 3.30.

      As I have said many times - and since 2009 - oil is in a trading range. Until the reforms you talk about REALLY kick in it is same old same old. From a purely technical standpoint some key moving averages in futures contracts were broken today and the traders pounced on it. I would say $90 is for sure (with the requisite spread to Brent) and 87-88 is more than likely to happen this go round. Of course the old caveat is in play in that news can change the dynamics - but if things stay relatively the same in the world those are the numbers I expect to come around.

      Got stopped out of my early morning purchase of LCC in my swing account (luckily just a few hundred shares as 13.65 was higher than I wanted) - but bought some more ( a lot more) at 13.05 with a 12.70 stop after the stop out.

    • BTW JPM's Baker seemed pretty reasonable to me. Credit CTR for bringing up the short issue a while back. Here is a public excerpt that the media got:

      "Last month, we downgraded LCC from OW to Neutral, believing shares adequately reflected a pending merger with LCC’s value portion not expected to top 27%. Two things have happened since: LCC’s value portion emerged at 28% and shares sold off modestly (-12% from the recent 8-Jan-13 peak vs. S&P 500 +3.9%) as some chose to short LCC as a hedge on AMR credit. While there are no changes to our model, the blend of 28% value, 5.2x stand-alone EV/EBITDAR and 7x P/E nudges our price target from $18 to $18.50 and our rating rises to Overweight."

      If you search and get to the Barron's article talking about Baker's upgrade - there is a link in the article that will take you to jpmorgan site and the full upgrade post is a good read - plus there is a lot of number crunching at the end for you to go over and you can compare your numbers.


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