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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

  • wgrsh wgrsh Jun 5, 2013 3:26 PM Flag

    Correction pattern

    Well this is the third correction this year. The S&P (intraday high to intraday low) had a 3%, then a 4% and today the S&P hit 5%. Almost looks like a pattern, but the one before the Feb. 3% (at the end of December) wasn't a 2% correction ... it was a 3%. So that pattern doesn't hold. Does mean that it can't stop here, but it's not over until it is over.

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    • Not quite 5% - the intraday high was 1680 I believe and that is what the traders go by on movements. Stock is correct it is the 1600-1595 level that is the next line. That would cover 50 DMA and fib retracement number. Heard people moaning, and I am incredulous as it is a 4+% pullback after a huge run-up. Know for a fact that if one had bought 6/14 SPY puts on Friday when the S&P broke 21 DMA and hedged correctly one would be looking at less that a1.5% loss in holdings. They were cheap, and today I sold a 1/3 of them when the 50% fib retracement number got hit.

      Been adding at layered levels in LCC last few days in trading account.

      What is your take on the numbers released this a.m.?

    • Big test is the 50 DMA on Dow and S&P. We will see if that holds. VIX (and related ETFs) says, correction could be shallow. Some profit taking is warranted after such an impressive run. But, more importantly it is rotation time. Technology hasn't caught up with the market yet. And that's I see the money flows going.

      • 1 Reply to stockmeisterl03
      • The market almost hit the 50 dma today. Although the market has had a great run and decent size correction wouldn't be surprising, this one seems so forced with talk of 'tapering" but without supporting economic data. If we have tapering it would only come with a decent economy... so not bad for the market, and they could always reinstate it if it was the wrong move to taper. Interest rates? ... long term rates should be 2-4% above inflation (and I would lean towards the lower end of that range). So, what are people expecting? Tapering isn't exactly the same as falling off a cliff. And I'm sure the Fed isn't going to raise short term rate so as to invert the curve. So, I don't get the "noise" being made that surrounded the start of this correction.

        Actually, I think there are just too many people that want in, and they aren't, and too many people trying to time the big correction.

        And I agree ... techs should do well. I collected a good position in many after the selloff last Nov. They've done well ... and will continue.

 

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