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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

  • wgrsh wgrsh Jun 21, 2013 11:16 AM Flag

    Oil's seasonal run up into July 4th

    It certainly looks like oil has hit a pothole in its summer run up into the July 4th time period ... certainly bodes well for fuel costs going into Q3.

    DAL said bookings for the summer are very strong. Generally, the economy is suppose to be stronger in 2H which should bode well for bookings.

    Nothing like a quadruple OEX week with everyone wanting a correction ... or at least those looking to reposition their funds.

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    • Oil prices, like stock prices, took a dive when the idea that QE might, one day, end was floated by Berneke.

      This strange & novel concept - ultra cheap money ending one day - has affected all valuations.

      • 1 Reply to alanfrombigeasy
      • Seems like a "pothole" in the supply and demand mechanism.

        The other day the FTC joined the EU in looking into the manipulation of Brent prices ... same lines of libor, etc ... non-transparency of price setting. Also, just started an investigation into spoofing taking place with WTI.

        Of course, the last I heard is that the EU is still asking for a delay in imposing the new CFTC swap rules that were suppose to go into effect in mid-July on European Banks that do business in the US.

    • Just went back to the eia charts and looked at YOY comparisons for jet fuel prices. For the 2nd Qtr it looks like fuel ran 10-15% cheaper than last year. damspilots info was excellent, and I would imagine that even if LCC' s prices were higher that the YOY comparison would hold to some degree.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to mitchad1
      • It seems that dmspilot has the system. So, fuel is down and revenues (total) are slightly up yoy. I don't know if LCC's "after tax" earnings will beat last year's "pre-tax" earnings, but they are close to doing it. This year pre-tax number should definitely be better than last year's. LCC should have no problem beating analysts' estimates as they stand now. Another monthly report to go ... loads still look strong for June.

        I'll have to look at the dates to see if Q2 numbers come out before or after the stockholders vote.

    • And the oil trading range (85-95) keeps on going on and on, and on........

      Sentiment: Buy