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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

  • kgmorse2005 kgmorse2005 Jul 11, 2013 10:21 AM Flag

    Is oil starting to turnover and come back down?

    Down $1.18 as of right now.

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    • Either it is, or it isn't -- but I guarantee you that it will be a random, un-game-able move. I only study the oil market these days as an intellectual endeavor; there is nothing I could look at that would help me predict the price. Long term, I firmly believe that at current prices (and probably much lower prices) supply massively outstrips demand. So long term should be down, if the financialization ever gets controlled. But this is not really an investible theory.

      • 1 Reply to iahphx
      • Does oil really matter to airlines? To put it in Parker's words, "There is a natural hedge." And the industry is structured to make sure that natural hedge is possible. I'm sure some trade airlines depending on the direction of oil, but if looked at closely, I bet that the correlation falls apart. If investing in energy stocks, that is a different matter ... un-investable? ... who knows.

        Now if there is financialization and who ever is doing it takes it to a level of destroying the world economy, that is a different matter. On a different note, anybody hear anything about the Platt, non-transparent, oil price feed investigation ... sort of like fixing libor? Also another area re: financialization ... some other transparency rules set for compliance this month were put off for two years a few weeks ago. But there seems to be a critical mass of changes .... other commodities are dropping ... Ags (heck they are talking of corn going to $3-4), metals, etc .... oil is sitting in its range for now ... at least Brent what the products have been priced off of.

 

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