Absent an economic decline, I do NOT expect oil production to significantly exceed demand in 2014. Iraq is a wild card, but it is clear that past predictions of rapidly rising Iraqi production were clearly wrong. I would bet down more likely than up for Iraq in 2014.
Elsewhere oil production is up here, down there. The one constant is oil consumption by oil exporters (and former oil exporters like Egypt) keeps going up year after year, cutting into their oil exports.
BTW, Brazil is unlikely to become an oil exporter in 2014.
If the world GDP increases faster than population, I expect oil prices to rise in 2014.
"But, I guess the price is driven by problems in Egypt now."
That's what they say, but understand what you're saying. And it seems to be never ending ... even back in the 1990s ... 1400 years.
I hope oil prices fall for all in the world. Even if an alternative is appropriate, a cheaper bridge to that point will be better for all ... except Russia (which almost imploded before we changed all our financial regulations in 1999-2000), and, of course, the ME.
Related ... A new Glass-Steagall was put forth in the Senate today.