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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

  • iahphx iahphx Sep 28, 2013 10:30 PM Flag

    "Saudi Texas"

    Google "Saudi Texas AEI" for one of the most astonishing charts I've ever seen in my life. It's Texas oil production since 1981. The line has now gone almost vertical, as Texas production has almost doubled IN TWO YEARS -- up 1.2 mpd. And there's no sign the production increases are leveling off.

    Remarkable that the NYMEX crude futures contract for delivery in nearby Cushing, OK has not reacted one iota to this production increase. If that contract was "real," it obviously would have. Imagine any other market suddenly flooded with 2x production. But obviously that contract isn't about "real" oil supply/demand.

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    • Meanwhile, UK oil production may drop -22% in 2013.

      New car sales in China during the first 8 months of 2013 were 11.3 million cars (up +13% yoy) vs. US new car sales of 10.6 million (up +17% yoy) in the USA.

      In the USA, new car sales are mostly replacements (one new car, one scrapped car). In China some new cars replace cars lost in accidents and a few worn out cars, but most new Chinese cars create new oil demand. Car sales a decade and more ago in China (long enough to wear a car out) were a small fraction of current sales.

      Iahphx cherry picks data to support his POV (oil prices should be $20/barrel, or no more than $60) while I try to take a more holistic view pf world supply & demand.

    • I went to the EIA website for Texas, got the data for all oil product sales (gasoline to residual fuel oil), summed it up and converted to millions of barrels/day. In July 2013, Texas burned 2.532 million barrels/day. This is WAY above the US average per capita.

      Texas could double production again (they will not, even at $200/barrel) and Texas (unlike Saudi Arabia) would still be an oil importer (just like the rest of the USA).

      Reduced oil consumption (have gas taxes pay for roads & highways instead of stealing from "rainy day" fund) is the way to go. Fraced wells deplete quickly.

      BTW, much/most of the oil production increase in Texas is in "other oil" that cannot be used for jet fuel or diesel. Stuff like propane, butane and pentane.

 

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