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US Airways Group, Inc. Message Board

  • mechjr mechjr Dec 10, 2013 10:31 AM Flag

    Formulae for AAMRQ holders


    Here is a recent list of formulas collected from the various boards. Based on these formulas, the average price drop from dilution as described in the 8-K is about 60 cents per AAMRQ share. Since no one really knows the correct formula - you should pick your own:
    1) AAL *1.582 - 22.56 (fans are sticking with original because claims did not change and share dilution was already assumed)
    2) (AAL - 13) * 1.3 + $1.6 or (not sure about the $1.6 fudge but it sort of makes sense)
    3) AAL * 1.544 -22.34 (decent guess)
    4) AAL *1.314 - 17.18 (works now but doesn't work on each end of the range)
    5) AAL * 1.582 -22.56 - .80 (i'm using an 80 cent fudge until I find a reliable formula)

    Again, its your stock so make your own spreadsheet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Good summary for now, probably best to use the last to be safe. We have a couple of real experts who can add better commentary than I can or come up with a new version if needed for the dilution issue. One good poster was arguing that the dilution actually came out as a positive for AAMRQ people.

      I'm optimistically figuring a $25 plus average on the conversion dates, but of course just a guess.

    • Here is the formula from the merger plan ... fill in the variables.

      "Market-Based Old Equity Allocation means, with respect to any Mandatory Conversion Date, the aggregate number of shares of New Common Stock that New AAG shall ratably distribute (or reserve for distribution) to the holders of Allowed AMR Equity Interests on such Mandatory Conversion Date, or as soon thereafter as reasonably practicable, in an aggregate amount equal to (i) the product of (a) 25% of the difference between the New Common Stock Allocation and the Initial Old Equity Allocation, multiplied by (b) the amount (if any) by which the VWAP for such Mandatory Conversion Date exceeds the Value Hurdle Price, all as multiplied by (c) the reciprocal of such VWAP, less (ii) the Shares in Excess of Cap for such Mandatory Conversion Date; provided, however, that in no event shall the number of shares distributed and/or reserved as described in this Section 1.148 with respect to any Mandatory Conversion Date be less than zero."