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Cerus Corporation Message Board

  • rfwaxman rfwaxman Aug 28, 2001 4:21 PM Flag

    this so called "company" is a...

    lab experiment...what makes a stock worth $1.00? i'll tell you...it's the promise that the co. will EARN that $1.00 back for me in a reasonable period of time so that i still own the share and all the earnings after that initial dollar are the RETURN on my investment! that's as simply as i can put it...so, with that having been said, in what period of time will this "co." return to me $900 million??? my guess is NEVER! so, i'm short to the hilt, and i'll cover when the stock more closely resembles what it is, namely a fractional ownership of cerus corp...my guess is around $20 +/-...by the way, you'd help yourself to look at the PRICE CHART w/ moving averages and volume as it is a picture of the psycology of the shareholders...patterns that emerge on price charts have proven to repeat...

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    • RF,

      My comments on 50-DAY PRICE, 200-DAY PRICE, AND VOLUME CURVES:

      First, I do not think that these measures are usefully applied to low-volume stocks of new pharmaceutical companies. [This is not HOMS, by a long shot, because the businesses are not the same in all variables.]

      Second, I find a $20 price for CERS inconsistent with a review of these averages. 50-day crosses 200-day three times (3/98, 8/98, and 3/01) with respective gains of 30% in 100-days, 60% in 100-days, and 70% in 90-days. Volume spikes come out as 10 to 5 to 3 for gains, losses, and no-change occurences.

      Taken together, one would forecast the following. (1) There is a 75% chance that the 50-day remains above the 200-day over next 40 days. (2) In the following 80-days there is a retest of $75-80. So, a guess is $75 to 80 in 120-days. This is very different from your $20 figure. And by the way, when (how many days) will CERS be $20, according to your analysis?

      As for business fundamentals, why don't you check out the company websites: www.cerus.com and www.vitechnologies.com. There are plenty of market numbers there. You can do your own spread sheet. Try $60-70/unit for treatment. If you run the numbers, try a discount rate of 25%. You will see that the analysts are getting $60-80 popping up on their screens. This is why people are paying $58/share. They also have few alternatives in this bear market.

      There are industry trade groups, as I have learned. Try www.aabb.org.

      These companies are not "lab experiments." They have clinical trials completed, and these trials involve patients in hospitals, with the infrastructure and the FDA involved.

      Spend some time looking over these companies. You may be able to come back to the board with some really clear comments about why people should either buy or sell the stock.

      Cheers,

      Clar

      • 1 Reply to clar729
      • What happens to cers moving averages when the NASDQ goes to 1200 -1400 ?? (clearly the direction it is headed if unemployment rises any further) A given in high tech if not most other sectors. I know I would rather be in cash when capitulation runs it's course. The question is: Will high risk biotechs be immune??...

    • somebody please quantify $58/share for me...what is it based on? hopes? dreams? potential? you know what potential is don't you? lack of production...i'll bet you can't justify cash value since the cash burn isn't replaced by any revenue...

 
CERS
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