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Royal Dutch Shell plc Message Board

  • zer0t0l zer0t0l Jun 24, 2013 7:03 PM Flag

    All in ? Pass ?

    I see that most here have ample "dry powder". I'm glad that I can communicate with successful investors. I need some help though. Can any of you with this "dry powder" give me a "heads up" as to when I should be buying RDS ? Just give me the week.

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    • I timidly ventured from those cozy hills and using my long term 'two day' rule, went half in at the close today. Appears the bulls have wrestled the control away from the bears. Anytime I can get RDSa under 65 on an upswing I'm a happy guy. Will buy more if this does turn out to be a wave up - otherwise will swing trade. GLTA

    • Sold my three toes early this morning. Waiting for a new entry point.

    • zero, with all the talent on this board help you decide to buy? All in! no pass. I believe that the correction is over ( waiting for confirmation) an that we are entering the final wave five of the bull market that will last till winter or spring. The market may zigzag a little but in the end we are entering the final wave five of Elliott wave market analysis. After the wave five, market will be doing zigzag sideways to down (bear market) and set up a new bull market cycle. Guys, read up on market psychology on Elliott wave to help understand the little zigzag that make up the big zigzag on market psychology. You maybe a non-believer but why is it that big trading houses and banks had it program in their computer on where those Fibonacci retracement suppose make pivot. It would hurt to understand them,. It may even help understand where the market at that particular moments. Just my humble opinion. Contribute your opinion to help us a better investor.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • The trying to find a floor for bottoming process? Today, I see for the first time in weeks that the percentage of stock above 200 day moving average had stop dropping. Yesterday it was 41% above the 200 day m/a, now it turn up to 46% the 200 day m/a. This could be an early sign of base building. The last correction, the percentage drop to 39% before bouncing rally. yesterday it went as low as 41%, it is close to 39% to the previous correction last November 15,2012. Looking at the percentage, we are very close to a bounce area. I will wait a few days to see more picture and the market foot prints. Just my humble opinion and analysis.

    • "Just give me the week"

      Ok, the week is.... the week it makes a low for the year.

      More seriously, if one is a short term trader, the correct week is difficult to predict...no method is foolproof (at least in my experience).

      However, if one has a little longer horizon, it is somewhat less difficult. For those following the stock price, it has had a fairly consistant range over the past several years (generally from about 60 to the low 70's - with a few times above or below this range...but these are outliers)... So, one could conclude that could purchase any time it is near the lower range and then have the patience to wait until it is near the upper range to sell...one does not have to catch the absolute bottom or top...

      That is not to say that there is no risk...there is always the possibility for some significant event to cause this range to be violated...but, even in these cases, the return to the "range" has occurred over a longer period of time...

      I do trade both short term (am currently short puts as I have posted) and longer term (currently have a sell point in the 72 - 75 range...not sure if this will happen this year or next...a waiting game...and collect the dividends while waiting - I view this as a much better option than trying to achieve a better return while holding cash).

      Nothing special, just my view...each person must make (and be responsible for) one's own decision(s)...

      • 1 Reply to retiredguru3
      • Like usual, good post Guru. I also feel like within a couple of months we'll see high 60's or maybe low 70's. If you figure in dividends with that....we're looking at 10% + Gains . Looking at the charts Patience will pay off here with a "buy and hold" mentality. I've missed making money in the past by waiting (guessing) for the perfect bottom. Even if RD zig-zags from here, I'll keep my eyes on the finish line, when that time comes I'll decide on the sell date. Again, I'm betting that RD will be somewhere between the high 60's and low 70's.
        One bite at a time.....................

    • If I have to guess without market internal confirming the bottom and a bounce, then start an averaging buy Thursday. That will equate to the approximate amount of the previous last year. As said before that the bounce are to watch was SPX 1527-1557. Today SPX went as low as 1560 (close to 1557) so we are getting closer to the bottom., maybe the next two days we will reach this watch area of SPX bottoming area. Only my guess, as I have to wait for market internals to show me that it did stabilize for me to start buying. My opinion only.

 
RDS-A
82.36+0.51(+0.62%)Jul 22 4:01 PMEDT

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