Anyone remember (back in Oct of '90) how Shell stock responded when George the 1st (George H. Bush) led a fairly united world into Kuwait after a tyrant attempted to take over their country? I think the stock went up (but not all that sure how much). Anyway, trouble in that part of the world usually drives up oil prices along with the prices of the major oil stocks. I thought hard yesterday about selling (taking my near 3% current gain) but had a flashback of Desert Storm. I know the conditions are different, but here we go again leading a fairly united world against another tyrant (women / baby killer). This similarity is the only reason I stayed in yesterday. Enjoying the ride (not sure how long I'll stay), but will keep my finger on the sell key. I also believe there's a better buy opportunity coming. GLTA
I tried to check back on 1990 and all I could find is monthly charts. From January 1990 to December 1990 the Integrated group had a gain of 8.2% ( 12 months). From January of 1991 to December 1991 had a 0.006% gain. I did not see a significant gain for Big oil co. I look at XOM at the same period adjusted for split stock price was: open $12.44 Jan 90 and close Dec. 90 at $12.87. There was no big pop. During desert storm XOM went as high as $13.71 on August 31, 1990 but pulled back to December 31 1990 close of 12.87. Maybe this fear rally is just temporary for aggressive traders to make money.
Agree that future of stock price uncertain at this point...could close all trades at a (small) profit - but decided to hold as don't make much taking small profits...risk/reward from here is 50/50 in my view...but staying with the thought of getting out at 67+ (may not reach it currently...in which case, will just have a longer wait). Reasons for holding are that my (long) calls do not expire until January, can roll the (short) Sept. puts...and, Oct. is a month away...
Hate to leave money on the table since I went all cash yesterday. But, learned a long time ago to not push and be greedy. Also expect a good entry point in the future since we have so many headwinds blowing. GLTA