As a Shell retiree I naturally keep an eye on the Big Yellow Mother. Looking at the four-year weekly chart the contracting upward sloping triangle over the past several years is coming to an end. A sizeable move is coming. Above $69.24 is a breakout and below $64 could be the beginning of meltdown. But there's a lot of support around $60.50. Which way? Normally this pattern is a continuation pattern and it began in an upward direction. Also, the distance from XOM has expanded to the point where something has to happen to bring them back to a historical relationship (IMHO). RD up or XOM down. Some are projecting a fall in oil prices due to the supply developments. Iran coming on? The Fed is likely to start the tapering very soon. Assorted things suggesting both up and down. Then to make things worse, sometimes the price will break in one direction and then suddenly reverse. Only one thing is for sure. A sizeable move is coming. If it breaks above $69.24 it's likely to come back down and retest that level from above after a week or two. I'm thinking about buying then with a tight stop. Good luck all.
I agree with the long term chart here, seem to be that the first target of these breakout could be $72.36 with a potential of $86 ( 2year). RD has been consolidating since 2011 ( 2 years), and the base of that consolidation is top at 75 and low at 57, that is 18 dollars spread, add that to the break out of $69, that is equal to $87 2 years from now, that is provided the RD management do the right thing. I am just speculating base on price spread and 2 year consolidation. It would be nice if it come true two years down the road for RD.
I bought in 100% on Friday. Will hold all week for a move up. So far so good. I believe there will be a minor Christmas rally. Looking for 69. Remember the C rally usually happens during the last 7-8 days before Christmas! The Feds won't taper this week. They will wait till 2014. Taking a chance here..hope it pays off!
I don't normally buy break out in the higher end because higher chance of false breakout and retest unless all the stars align, Like; whole sector index is indicating a group momentum, like volume is rising, ADX is rising and breaking above 25, MACD confirming the sector rise, etc, but I will buy the break out from bottom price consolidation or a cup and handle after long decline. I am now more of a heard mentality. I watch where the market momentum and hitch a ride with the prevailing wave. Right now the short term wave is down. If we have an 8 to 12% correction, then thereafter is one last leg of the bull market that may end in spring or extended leg occur, the summer could be the end of the bull market. The bull market is entering its 5th year cycle which is a little longer because of the FED pump almost 2 trillion into QE. I am cautious and ready to buy short ETF when the moving average cross downward.