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T. Rowe Price Emerging Markets Stock Message Board

  • bigrewardlittlerisk bigrewardlittlerisk Mar 17, 2008 5:23 PM Flag

    When to jump in?

    i like what i see from this fund. i believe emerging markets will outpace the u.s. for sometime to come. i understand that the current u.s. economy is pulling down the emerging market returns, not to mention the slower global growth we are now seeing. anyone have some advice for me for when to get into this fund? i am thinking that we will continue to go down for global and u.s., and waiting until mid april to jump in....with the share price somewhere between 30-35/share. would appreciate anyones thoughts.


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    • Thanks for your replies. I havent jumped in yet but am nearing a point to do so. The 5-yr chart on this fund is fantastic, and now we see a ...what I believe short term sell off. The dollar has gained strength recently, with commoditiy prices plummeting, which will hurt this fund in the short term. At $ 33 plus change, this is a 1 year low. The two year low, from looking at the chart appears around $28-$30/sh. I agree with the posters that long term the emerging countries, their demographics, their growth will...has surpassed the U.S., thus the need to look outside of the U. S. I know no one can time the bottom of any stock, etc., but my gut tells me that there is still some more pull back in this stock fund, after a fantastic 5 year run. With huge finacial obstacles in the U.S. still remaining (credit crunch, dropping house prices, the FED'S tremendously increased annual deficit, the inevitable cost to the U.S. when Congress gets around to fixing social security/medicare, and the U.S. citizens appeal for more socialistic federally funded programs.....all of this I believe will sooner than latter sink the dollar bigtime. Sorry for the editorial. :)

    • ginamarty Jul 4, 2008 11:41 AM Flag

      I've been in PRMSX for several years, have really liked it since I first saw it and am putting in a couple thousand more next week. I strongly believe that foreign companies are the way to go, and in emerging countries some of these companies are at the beginning of their growth cycle (and the growth cycle of their national economies). In addition, Alderson does a great job of picking stocks from all over the world, so that exposure isn't just in one region; and a significant number of his larger choices are in oil and gas. Now, I do have a good stomach for risk and a long-term timeline (10+ years), so I don't mind the inevitable dips; they're opportunities for me to buy more. As I said, I'm adding to my stake in PRMSX next week, so if I were you I'd join the party!

    • I have always maintained over the last year that getting in below 38 to 40 will be a wise choice when you look back 2 years from now. Take a 2yr peak at performance on PRMSX vs TFEQX and VGTSX - also good performers in international. Then run that against the DJI. No comparison-PRMSX is the clear choice. The fund manager always adjusts - I am not worried - it is a proven fund ! Dont get caught up in last few months. Over 60% up in last 2 years for PRMSX, under 30% for VGTSX and under 20% for TFEQX which is equal to DJI.

      PRMSX is a no-brainer when under 38 - I always get back in. I have sold at or near 45 over the past year and made over 27% last year on PRMSX -and got out before the drop of 2008.

      I got back in around 36.50 in March and am happy.

    • I don't know when a good time to get in is, but I'll tell you this is a bad time to be in it! The "emerging markets" are reeling now, just as bad as the US (if not worse) from the price of oil and inflation.

      I was very excited about this fund the first half of this year, but over the last month, it has been my worst. I think I have given up a few months of gains in the last 3 weeks.

      The top stocks in this fund like AMX, PBR, RIO have had a huge run over the last year and may be running out of gas a bit. I would imagine there will be some changes in the portfolio soon, I would stay out for while until things start to turn around - or maybe you are better at calling a bottom than me in which case, that could be now or very soon....

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