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Galectin Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

  • lasermn lasermn Mar 6, 2013 2:47 AM Flag

    Ernie, can you shed any light on this?

    At some point in time after patients have been dosed, the results, good, bad, or otherwise will be known to the patients, those administering the drugs, & to Corporate Insiders.

    Sooooo, how does BIG PHARMA find out if the treatment is working or not? Does BIG PHARMA have their spies planted, does GALT take preliminary results to BIG PHARMA & try to "Let's make a Deal", or does GALT mail out bid invitations to all the BIG PHARMA companies & says "this is what we've got, give us your best Buy Out bid", & all the bids will be opened at an announced time?

    Obviously, the best case scenario for GALT would be for BIG PHARMA's to get into a bidding war for GALT stock, something I'm sure BIG PHARMA wants to avoid if at all possible.

    Yes, I know the difference between a BUY OUT offer, & a Take Over.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • "Sooooo, how does BIG PHARMA find out if the treatment is working or not?" In this case, they will wait for the study results. If there were a company really, really interested they could plant a qualifying patient on trial. But, remember this is a phase one trial for a drug that may be administered for a protracted period. It could take a long time to determine dose limiting toxicity and optimum dose (assuming there is any efficacy to be observed.) Remember that the human form of this disease takes years, perhaps decades to manifest itself. Expecting the rodent model to be repeated in a phase one trial is a bit optimistic. An effective drug might only halt the progression of the disease. Measuring that effect could take a very large sample size and an extended period of time.

      Let's (for the sake of argument) assume some level of observable modest efficacy is seen (or reported). Make no mistake, GALT would love to sell itself. Czirr and his investment group would jump at the opportunity to get their money out with a premium. But heres the rub, GALT does not have a very good record in the credibility department. A large pharma interested in their results will take this into account. To gain traction, the results of this trial need to be published and presented by a credible clinical investigator (not a GALT employee) in a recognized peer reviewed forum. Also be aware that if GALT has some success with GR MD 02, there will be activity by potential competitors looking at the biology of the pathway for alternatives to GALT's drug that do not infringe on the patent.

      Companies looking to be acquired usually hire an investment bank to shop them around to potential buyers. Pharma M&A usually happens behind closed doors and a deal is announced when the negotiations are complete. Public bidding wars are the exception rather than the rule. Most acquisitionns occur sometime after late phase 2 or phase 3 testing once proof of concept is established.

 
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