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Navios Maritime Partners L.P. Message Board

  • steveh8000 steveh8000 Apr 20, 2013 6:14 AM Flag

    Thought's on NMM

    I am a dividend investor, and will take any well run company with a dividend above 5%. I hold for long term 1 year or more with the expectation of a stable share price rising another 5% or more. I bought Navios for their dividend, and felt they were one of the better managed shippers available. Shipping has hit the bottom cycle, and a high risk going forward for any profitable earnings among many shippers is a probability. However many are trading at a good value, and if managed well can make it through until ship supply and cargo demand meet at a higher profitable day rate price point. I'll be very happy even if dividends fall to 8% with a pps of $16.50 at year end. I'll be adding during the drops, I took a relatively small position two weeks ago and will hold to see how the year works out, and value add with earnings results. Pro side: I believe a growth in world cargo shipments will slowly rise for many years. Will it be in balance to ships available tonnage? Con side: Political risk, currency risk among trading nations, fuel prices, shipping day rates, shorter term contracts, over supply of ships. Certainly risk unknown, but goods and commodities will still ship with growing demand.

    I'll be interested for board comments explaining the pros and cons of the shipping segment. Many have studied this in more detail.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • i posted this before in reply to similar message by another shareholder, but i suppose i don't mind repeating myself. mgmt has already said they will pay 1.77 this year. beyond 2013, we have a binary situation:
      A) either mgmt is right and bulk market stages a minor recovery in 2014 in which case the divvy is maintained and all is peachey; or
      b) the bulk market stays flat/declines somewhat in which case there will be a divvy cut in 2014.
      my own guess is B). and my question is how much of a divvy cut. if they cut it to $1.00, then the stock is cheap. i mean, say you buy it today @14.60, collect 1.77 in divvies then in 2014 get $1 divvy , then $1.00/(14.62-1.77) = 7.7% yield, not bad given that treasuries will be yielding 0.2% then.

 
NMM
0.82+0.02(+2.50%)Feb 12 4:02 PMEST