thats 216.69 in AGQ terms.
that should be THE top for this move as the us dollar is working on an ascending triangle formation and the uptrend of that triangle support area is at 74.80 with the dollar now at 75.17....so we are getting very close in the next day or so for a bottom in the dollar and a top in silver.
once the dollar breaksout from that ascending triangle formation, the measured upside target is 79-80 on the US dollar......that would probably mean new lows for silver below the 32 level.
downside target if that happens, would be 28.XX and then 24.xx!
so we probably have one final minor push here higher and its probably ALL down hill from there!
Try reading later, when those signals were negated. Late Friday he said he would be going long if silver broke upwards, confirming the bullish trend. Like I said, you guys criticizing haven't a clue about day trading techniques. I certainly wouldn't have done every trade he mentions, but that is because I use a slightly different system. Something to be aware of is that different techniques are better for different market conditions and when they transition, one way will give false signals , so a short period of getting stopped out more will occur until the transition is confirmed and techniques are switched. It is the overall result that is important, not a few days where you may get stopped out.
It is very telling to me when I see the attitude displayed in a persons posts, helpful and informative, or childish personal sniping.
clive maund is very bullish on silver and he said thursday:
"Fundamentally yesterday's breakout was due to the realization in the markets that QE is set to continue, whether called QE or not, and in fact it must continue, as any attempt to apply the brakes at this late stage would result in a global systemic economic collapse.Hyperinflation will be the inevitable end result, as will prices for gold and silver at levels that many now would consider to belong solely in the realms of fantasy."
the problem that i have with that statement is if QE is set to continue, then crude oil prices could continue to rise and if that happens and lets say gas prices go up to 4.50, 5.00 and 6.00 dollars a gallon, then THIS would KILL the RECOVERY, since consumer will be spending more of their incomes on fuel and less would be available to spend on other things. this will slow the economy down and the recovery could go in reverse.
so no in my opinion gas prices need to drop since wages are not rising enough to compensate for the rapid rise in fuel prices.
if gas prices drop from their highs near 4.25 to 3.25....then we could have a recovery since consumers will have an extra 20-50-100-200 dollars a month to spend on other things.
can they pump more money with another QE in the economy without fuelling higher commodity and oil prices?
i dont think so... clive can be bullish all he wants right now and he has a interest in rising precious metals prices, but the reality of the situation is the ascending triangle on the US dollar at this time that if and when that formation breaksout is suggesting a rise from 75 to 80 on the us dollar index ....clive does not talk or bother to mention the US dollar in his super bullish column.....so his analysis is incomplete in my opinion without analysing the bullish formation in the US dollar chart and how it relates to silver prices....after all silver topped on 4/29 @ 49 right as the dollar bottomed near the 73 level..... now that the dollar is rising in an ascending triangle formation at 75 and silver is @ 39 does not in my opinion suggest that silver could rise back up to the top of the parbolic collapsed formation.
second a parabolic rise in silver prices followed by a crash does not usually end at the 38% retracement level of the move that started from oct 2008.....no usually a drop like that takes it down to the 50% and 61.80% retracement levels if not all the way to 100% level.....i am not suggesting that the 100% but at least to the 50% retracement level at 28.xx or the 61.80% level at 23.XX......
so the best that i can see silver rising to without the US dollar violating its bullish formation is near 50% retracement level of the whole drop in silver from 49 down to 32....and that level is coming in at 41.098 or about 40 for SLV....
so silvers move up here is likely to continue for a couple bucks or so for the next few days but if the dollar hold it daily uptrend line coming in near 74.70 and starts to rise again and then makes a move and breaks out of that formation, then silver top near the 41 area could be the perfect shorting opportunity till the end of the year!
and finally the bullish sentiment on this board has started to increase very quickly again and by the time silver hits the 41 area in a week or two, it could be at a fever pitch level again....hardly a recipe for a long term bottom at this time....no silver long term bottom would come when everyone is pessimistic even as silver starts to rise.
this is hardly the case now with clive maund wildly bullish and dollar missing article.
good luck and good day for all.
Mike,You state if Gas goes to 5 or 6 it would slow the recovery... what recovery, this recovery is fake. It is an illusion masked by our Gov trying to keep the sheep from revolt. Printing and diluting and propping. Next we can ad slashing as in SS, and other entitlements. Silver's not looking at 24 or sub 30 anytime soon IMO.
Thanks Mike for your in-depth analysis. It is good to see the bear view on silver.
I have a major problem with your analysis however.
Historically, when there has been concerns of major financial breakdowns in the world economy, the trade has been to buy US Treasuries. This has had the effect of lower stock prices and a higher dollar. With the higher dollar, came lower silver and gold prices.
Recently, however, the opposite has been true. Investor confidence in the US is waning. Market participants know that US politicians are unwilling to cut spending. As QE continues and spending does not abate, the value of the dollar is usurped. This leads to a lower dollar and a higher silver price.
There is no avoiding the coming collapse of the dollar, and everyone knows it.
A telling sign that the whole thing is about to collapse is that all of the jewelry store ads are now directing people to sell their gold and silver for cash instead of trying to entice people to buy jewelry.
I highly doubt silver ever drops below $30 again. I do, however, believe we are due for a small pullback. At which time I will buy more AGQ.
The one thing that concerns me about Silver and AGQ is that the government may step in earlier this time to prevent another bull run in the metal. They may raise margin requirements weekly for an indefinite amount of time to prevent a runaway price. This would keep a lid on prices even as the dollar loses value.
Mike, Thanks tor your toutourials. I have been reading your posts for about a month. I had boughr 200 at 160, and sold it the same day for 165, and then it gapped up over the weekend,.... still kicking myself for selling! For some reason I couldent get on the message bord, and stayed out. I opened two new positions Friday, 200 at 200 and 400 at 205. i was holding on for one more buy of 30K shares.
Please dont stop posting. Your guidance is fantastic, but sometimes I don't under stand.
I appreciate your guidence.
mike, I don't disagree with your Technical Analysis but for what you say to happen, it will mean some kind of event has hap that not only sends the dollar higher but money flooding into Treasuries, like hap in 2008. Gold and Silver have been becoming more of a Safe Haven Play as the U.S. debt is also called into question.... Maybe Europe is the shoe to really fall hard....fwiw hge
A U.S. debt. downgrade. Could send millions of investors out of risky assets. Stocks and Commodities. I could be wrong but I respect the seasonality. A downgrade could easily send silver back to support $33. Especially now that its catching everybody by suprise again. Who knows Im the dummy that did a covered call and made about $1500. Would of made $3500