Hi Thompson,
The macro environment makes me very bullish long term for precious metal. I'm just giving a bearish scenario just as food for thought.
For precious metal to be bearish long term, there has to be cheap energy and a bullish equities market (pick-up in the economy without inflation). There would be no need to hedge against inflation and everybody would be piling into stocks. The only way I see this happening is if the natural gas bill passes. There would be natural gas fueling stations built throughout the country. Truck engines would be converted to natural gas. Oil and coal prices would tank. Everybody would have extra discretionary money after they fill up their cars. Demand for goods and services would go up. Energy prices would be cheap (due to switch to natural gas)which would control inflation. The cost of agriculture would go down due to cheaper transportation, tractor costs, pesticides, storage etc. We would see growth without inflation due to cheap domestic energy. It would be time to leave precious metal in a hurry...at least for me.
I don't think the natural gas bill will pass because the oil and coal lobbyists are far more powerful than the natural gas lobbyists.
I've really enjoyed all the analytical postings I've been reading. They've all been very helpful. I value reading opposing ideas very much. Thanks to all who have been posting in a mature and intellectual manner.