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K-Swiss Inc. (KSWS) Message Board

  • DrBrad127 DrBrad127 Oct 9, 1999 1:49 AM Flag

    I would lay low too!

    You and all of us know who has the power to erase
    those kinds of messages. If nke and ksws were planning
    a purchase the sec would be watching message boards
    and stock activities. If this turns out to be true
    I'm sure they will be knocking at my door because I
    have bought many many times more stock in this company
    than I have ever owned of any company. I just can't
    believe the market manipulation that is going on to keep
    this down. I saw it start today when we started down.
    Someone was deliberately keeping the price down. If and I
    say if there is a deal I would be very very happy. If
    there isn't I still think we are sitting on a stock
    that is getting ready to take off. If I was short and
    volume starts heavy I would cover quick, if you get the
    chance. I don't like to see anyone manipulated and used
    so others can make money by doing so. The market is
    place where that happens all the time. The sec have
    thousands of people that moniter trades and all boards to
    see that the playing field is level. I would think
    they should be watching those MM's a lot closer than
    us. Good luck. If your rumor turns out to be true
    that would explain the message being erased. It was
    erased so quickly I couldn't believe it. It was gone
    while I was replying to you. You can see that the
    number has been skipped. That's why I said this was the
    wierdest day. I still look at my ticker and tape to try to
    find out what happened to all those share for sale and
    we went to 17 1/8. I think there was only 2200
    traded that put us back to the 1/8 ask. I read your post
    on the nke board. You just may have hit the nail on
    the head. Good luck to you.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • There shoes are sooo ugly . I wish they had a not
      so ugly shoe so i might buy it but they dont , o
      yeah you can pay almost $100 for there nicer looking
      shoes , NOT. I'm not 20 years old anymore. I do like
      the stock price , just please make a freakin
      affordable decent looking sneaker .

    • There shoes are sooo ugly . I wish they had a not
      so ugly sjoe so i might buy it but they dont , o
      yeah you can pay almost $100 for there nicer looking
      shoes , NOT. I'm not 20 years old anymore. I do like
      the stock price , just please make a freakin
      affordable decent looking sneaker .

    • I have been selling KSWS for over 20 years
      now.
      I can tell you that my 1Q futures were down from
      last years numbers. On the other hand I
      booked 2Q
      stronger than last year with the intro of there new shoes.
      There all white styles are still very hot in the West.
      There
      account base is very limited and selective.
      There overseas sales are just now taking off
      and I
      feel there outlook is still strong. Management will
      open more select accounts and this will increase
      oreders and interest. Long
      all the way!!!

    • The bottom line is that even if things went
      pretty badly next year the stock is still a decent
      value. If things go well it is a screaming buy.

      I
      personally would be more concerned about the drop in 1Q
      future orders if I wasn't seeing a similar pattern with
      so many other companies and across so many sectors.
      The 3rd Q was hot, indications are for a very strong
      4th, the futures are the only indicator of a problem.


      One of my clients is a (not athletic) footware
      company, and they've seen a similar pattern of
      conservative ordering by their retailers. One reason that was
      cited was that many of them over-ordered last year and
      ended up with inventory problems. People have not
      decided to go barefoot next year; its more of an
      inventory management issue I think. Just my
      observation.

      Speaking of inventory, they are reporting a good
      sell-through, and seem well aware of the need to manage
      inventories. I don't see this getting out of hand.

      I
      know what you mean about the trendier styles, I always
      liked the understated look also. They haven't
      discontinued the classics to my knowledge, you might just have
      to look in another store for some. Somebody on here
      was saying they sell out of his store fast.

    • mnhtnbch,

      My biggest fear is that the
      explosive growth that KSWS has seen in the last year is
      just a result of trendy shoes. KSWS designed their
      latest shoes to cater to a younger, hipper, trendier
      segment of the market. This is a fickle group that
      eventually will find something else that interests them. At
      the same time, KSWS may have alienated some of it
      core customers who have purchased their shoes in the
      past. The KSWS shoes I bought in past years were classy
      looking and extremely comfortable. Just a nice looking
      shoe. The past weekend, I went out shopping with all
      intentions of buying a KSWS shoe. Have you seen these shoes?
      There is no way in hell I would be caught dead in one
      of them. Of course, 30 year-old white males aren't
      exactly KSWS' intended market. And no one has ever
      accused me of being fashionable anyway.

      All that
      being said, the stock looks extremely cheap no matter
      how you look at it. Though I think your theory that
      in two years KSWS could generate enough cash flow to
      equal their current market value is a little
      aggressive. Currently, KSWS' market value in around $140m
      (10.8m shares X $13). The 10.8m shares is from their
      10-Q which was as of October 20st. KSWS probably has
      around $50m cash on the balance sheet. Through the first
      9 months they've generated approximately $24m of
      free cash flow. So to be conservative, we project that
      out to $30m for the 1999. So if sales dropped by a
      33% you'd be looking at roughly $20m a year in free
      cash flow. Meaning that KSWS is trading at 7 times
      projected free cash flow after a 33% drop in revenue. If
      revenue is flat, then your looking at 4.5 times free cash
      flow. Both measures look cheap to me.


      Currently, KSWS has working capital (current assets less
      current liabilities) of approximately $116m. That means
      KSWS is trading at only $24m over current working
      capital. That's incredibly cheap. But that also assumes
      that the $40m of inventory on the balance sheet will
      not be written down due a lack of demand.

      Its
      a real quandary for me. I love the fundamentals but
      I hate the shoe. And I can't tell you what I think
      the stock is actually worth since I have no
      confidence in my ability to forecast revenues.

    • I still follow a stock by the symbol APM. Two
      years ago it dropped to around $30 from a $60 high and
      it's p/e was about 4 and it was thought to be a steal
      at that price. Well stock trading at 5/8 now! Yes
      .625, less than a buck in an industry with major
      pricing pressures and product transitions that they
      didn't keep up with. Don't rely on analysts forward
      looking #'s, as they wouldn't drop the projections until
      their clients have sold out. Not to say this will
      happen to KSWS but be careful. I'm following NKE and Z
      price action over the next few months to get an overall
      feel for an industry turnaround.

    • harvey2U,
      I based the assumption on the
      statement that sell-thru remained strong and that orders,
      while not growing were not out of line with year ago.
      But, yes I do recognize the trendy nature of the biz.
      I haven't done too much modeling with there
      financials, so what do you think a 35% sales drop would do to
      their cash situation? I am more focused on their cash
      then with the trailing PE ratio.

    • How can you assume that sales will be flat or
      even down slightly? Lets look a KSWS' history with
      regards to revenue (in millions).

      1994
      154,935
      1995 120,252
      1996 106,833
      1997 116,213
      1998
      161,540

      Do you notice the 31% drop from 1994 to 1996? Do you
      think that can't happen again, or has the trendy nature
      of the shoe business suddenly stopped?

      The
      question that must be answered is whether 1999 was just a
      "fad" year for KSWS. If this year was truly a fad,
      revenues will implode. The market likes companies that can
      deliver consistency with regards to earnings and
      revenues. KSWS/shoe companies have a tough time
      demonstrating this quality.

      btw - went to two stores
      over the weekend. The Foot Locker only displayed one
      KSWS model, though the manager said he had some KSWS
      Classics in the back. The other store - Champs - had many
      models, but manager indicated they weren't selling well.
      Also, saw a pair of kid's KSWS selling at a Marshall's
      for $12.99. These stores were all located in
      suburbia.

    • and consider they have no debt! Assuming that
      sales are only flat or slightly down this year they
      should still generate a pile of cash. It is truly hard
      to imagine this stock at this level by end of March.
      At this rate within two years they will have cash
      equal to the current stock value (ignoring the
      repurchase program). I keep wondering what could be going on
      here that I am missing to justify such a valuation.
      Anybody got some reasons that say the fundemental value
      of this company is properly reflected in the current
      price?

    • that it is astonishing that people are still
      selling this low. Lower volume recently and lack of
      messages on this board would suggest that the weak longs
      are out.

      Now those who like this company in
      the longer term (like me) are going to have to sit
      tight and wait 'til the tax selling and window dressing
      is over before we can see a gradual recovery in
      share price (though who knows how much recovery is
      forthcoming?).

      There are still lot's of sell messages on I-watch. So
      I'm not counting on much of a move up too soon even
      if the TA is starting to look more
      attractive.

      P

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