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K-Swiss Inc. (KSWS) Message Board

  • mnhtnbch mnhtnbch Jun 14, 2000 1:28 PM Flag

    richer

    well were up to 15, your pattern seems secure. What I want to know is will it 16 today so that I can unload another 50% stake??

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    • I sure would like to see a close above 15 today.
      That could be a breakout point. Actually MSN claims
      there should be resistance at the 200-day moving
      average right at $16.14, but a close above 15 will speak
      very well for the stock I believe. Even if we close at
      the current price 14 7/8 it will be the best close
      since the hit on January 12th. There doesn't seem to be
      alot of sellers out there in this price range, so new
      buying volume really runs it up. The question
      is....Where are the buyers? We'll probably end under 100K
      shares traded again today. If we break 100K, I bet we
      close above 15.

    • I figure this company should be fairly valued at
      around 240 million WITHOUT any cash beyond that necesary
      for operations.

      I haven't had anyone explain
      why the super 99 results will never be repeated.
      Certainly 2000 profits will be less than half but on a
      three year trailing the numbers will be around 20
      million proifts on a high return on equity company with
      lumpy growth. If 2000 sales end up 4 to 5% above 1998,
      especially in q3 and q4 a 12 times P/E would be quite
      conservative.

      I reallly hope to see that 30 million was spent
      reducing shares at and average price of 13.25. Would that
      leave around 8 million shares outstanding.

      If so
      given my three years trailing earnings at 12 times
      earings would produce a stock value of 30 per
      share!

      What if sales start really picking up and start
      looking closer to 99 than 1998? What if 50 million in
      share re-purchases were accomplished at low prices.
      (The volume was sufficient to make it a possibilty)
      and the shares outstanding were reduced to 6 million?
      30 million dollars in profits (close to 99) at 10
      times earnings divided by 6 milion shaes would equate
      to 50 dollars a share. How about that upside! (don't
      even get me going if the company were then valued at
      an industry norm of 19 times earnings!)

      A
      couple big if's to be sure. Those ifs seem more probable
      than the company making 40 cents a share for the next
      decade, while squandering their cash hord on unsusscesful
      investments.

      STF

 

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