I couldn't stand to live here with just locals. Thank God for the Californians. I live in a large developement that houses mostly transplants from other states and countries. Great place to live away from the locals. The locals don't like our planned community thou.
I don't blame you. California has gone downhill, however you gotta look at it that all the smart people are getting the hell on out before it gets worse. The brain drain from Cailifonia is benefiting other states as the smart people move there.
Hey Brad, I live 15 minutes from downtown Seattle. The rain in Seattle is a myth made up by the locals. They don't like outsiders, especially Californians. They try to keep them from moving here using that myth. Actually, the average rain fall is similar to Chicago. The winters can be misty and foggy with few sunny days thou. The rain does come mostly in the winter, and this winter has seen record breaking rains. Summers can be very very dry with droughts. So never assume what is generally accepted by the public.
I still think you can make an educated guess about things. If you see oil going up, you can therefore deduce gasoline prices will go up. Same if you live in Seattle, you can reasonably expect rain most days or if you live in Phoenix, you can expect very few days of rain. It's taking the data and applying it for what will happen in the future.
You do that Brad. Give it a read. I'm going to re-read it myself sometime soon. I think that I could get more out of the book after another read.
But Brad, you have to realize that its the unknowable that makes the biggest difference. That's why predictions fail. You will see that if you read the book.
I finished "Against the Gods" a few days ago. I recommend it; it's a good read. I don't think that I learned that much from it other than history, but it did clarify some things for me. It was also an interesting read to understand how mathematics and problem solving evolved from nothing to today's theories.
Brad, you should read it. It will give you some insite to why you can't predict the future. And why taking risk to the extreme will ultimately result in failure. Also you will see a chart by former Vice-Chairman of the Fed Alan Blinder and how the Fed works to counteract Congress. Then maybe you will understand why it is difficult to understand a Fed Chairman when he speaks before Congress.
You get the same discounted COH bags at your local Sam's Club or Costco, and if you are lucky even Target. COH has a problem with their distribution that they are no longer an exclusive product to higher end retail.
Oh, forget to do the tally...
Today on a down market, Brad's long pick obviously is down:
AVR -0.32 (-1.77%)
[one other of his longs I couldn't remember]
And surprisingly (for Brad) non-surprisingly (for us), Brad's short picks are mostly up:
COH -0.24 (-0.47%)
URBN +0.85 (+3.31%)
NMX +0.80 (+0.59%)
OK, Brad is going to declare he had backed up his truck (dump truck?) and shorted some more, as usual.
I wonder how much more he's going to short?
Give it up Brad. COH and even CHS are too big for you to short and distort. You're like a flee on the back of an elephant. Find some microcap to do your dirty work on. You'll have better luck.