Look at the 5 yr chart, we have seen this before..
COH is doing exactly what its done every 15-18 months. Expect a sharp recovery starting soon. May it be it won't hit new highs that fast this time around but I bet you it will be in mid 40s really soon.
However, in last five years, management never said that they are experiencing weak traffic. Even couple of months back, when Lew came on CNBC, he reiterated that they don't see any impact of economy slow down and their customers are still shopping. Here are the sequence of events which makes me really worried! 1. Closed their corporate channel - reason given to us: Inventory was getting diverted to Costco, & other wholesale clubs. 2. Analyst conference in last quarter after almost seven years of going public. 3. Good amount of shares sold by insiders- reason given to us: Executives wanted to rennovate their homes (I don't know the relationship between two consecutive fires - first in Reed's newly rennovated townhouse & then in Lew's penthouse (both were less than couple of months apart). 4. Wall Street is screaming about brand dilution looking at their comps in Retail stores vs factory stores. However, management doesn't offer the sales breakdown between these two channels (we know the ratio of retail vs full price stores is 3:1)! - I am wondering why none of the analyst has asked this question yet!
I do agree that Coach can recover littlebit, but, recent developments make me more worried on my long term investment decision in Coach!
Please share your thoughts if you have any more details on above four topics!
Actually in the past 5 years, I believe we've missed earnings expectations. It was two years ago that we tanked based upon earnings and last year at this point we popped even though the charts pointed to a drop. I believe it will be back in the $40s relatively soon.