Don't forget that Washington DC is wanting a stimulus package and quick. It looks like it could be a rebate of the tax money paid in from the first 10% bracket. $800 for single filers and $1600 for joint filers. It could be paid out prior to the end of June. Both parties want the package because of the election year. Retail may be the first to drop in price during a recession but they are also the first to rebound during a recession. Both the rate cuts and any stimulus package will push retail back up sometime. Maybe sooner rather than later.