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Coach, Inc. Message Board

  • lieutenantfox lieutenantfox Jul 29, 2008 7:24 AM Flag

    OK...results are in...

    Coach did have a nice quarter and did hit their numbers. No surprises there. Here is where it gets interesting:

    They guided lower for 2009. According to Yahoo analysts expected Coach to earn $2.37. They guided to $2.25 on $3.1 billion of revenue vs. a consensus of $3.6 billion.

    Other retailers have sold off when guiding down. Will Coach or is it already priced into the stock? I think the downside is limited and it very well could rally. Who knows in this crazy market. It wouldn't surprise me for COH to open down $3.00 or up $5.00. It ought to be interesting..

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    • I think COH can go higher at this level. COH has already been knocked down by all the other retailers. So in a way, the poor guidance has already been priced in. It will probably drop at the open but it might rally shortly after.

    • I had earlier made a negative comment here regarding AXP and prior COH comments. I have not followed this stock closely, am only here to get handle on consumer, and short term trading is impossible to predict. But, generally guidance has been a big problem.
      Any signs of weakness could have larger impact.

      Their US comp store sales were up, but much of this Q gain is due to currency.

      The value of COH the company probably depends more on what you thnink they will do in China, I am just concerned with their intel on US.

      • 1 Reply to shutupstellas
      • Actually, short term trading is not impossible to predict. People do it all the time. INS and I trade quite often with good results. You guys are, again, buying into the buy, hold, and go broke mentality that mutual fund managers promote. Trading is no more dangerous than buy and hold...a lesson some of you, unfortunately, are learning the hard way.

    • they never supplied guidance for 2009 until now so to whose number did they guide down?

      An analyst sitting in an office somewhere coming up with guesses he thinks they can hit.

      Here is what Frankfort said on 2009 from what I can see so far

      Coach initiated guidance for fiscal 2009 and estimates sales of about $3.61 billion for the year, an increase of at least 13%. Earnings per share are forecasted to rise to at least $2.25, up about 10% from last year, excluding the one-time items recorded in the fourth quarter of FY08. Earnings guidance includes about 5-6 cents of dilution from the acquisition of Coach’s retail businesses in Greater China, announced in May, due to higher SG&A expenses as well as projected brand building activities in the region, along with increased expenses associated with merchandising initiatives, led by Collection.

      In addition, the company introduced its first fiscal quarter outlook, with sales targeted to be at about $765 million, an increase of about 13%, and earnings per share projected to be about $0.44, about 8% ahead of last year.

      Classic Lew - underpromise to the analysts following COH and over deliver.

      China and Japan are going to protect them and their profits - and Frankfort knows it.

      • 1 Reply to ballfourwalkon
      • Ball,

        Seriously you get how this game is played? A company doesn't get to tell the market how it is going to is the other way around. Analyst have something called "expectations". You might have heard of them? If analysts are disappointed in the 2009 projections (given by Lew) then they will downgrade and you will be poor. I am constantly stunned at how amateur the long investors are on this board. I am not kidding or throwing stones. I really think a lot of you don't understand the market at all.

        It would be great if companies made their own projections and everyone accepted them as OK. Unfortunately, the market TELLS YOU what it expects, and it is up to Lew to deliver.

        Ball...please...start doing your homework on how the game is played. Look at AAPL. They delivered results that make Coach's look like a "turd in a puch bowl", and they are LOWER than they were pre-earnings. Why? Because analysts expected better. Good Lord, man, this is your hard earned money we are talking about....

    • I am replying to way COH opens up $5.00. That was a typo...

      It will most likely sell off...

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