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UTStarcom, Inc. (UTSI) Message Board

  • yahoo yahoo Oct 17, 2005 3:05 PM Flag

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    • Tigre, your contribution to this board is incrediable, and your knowledge is always appreciated here. I think your skills of research and writing are much better than so called paid analysts. I have to say I enjoy your posts quite much. if possible, would you please talk about some other stocks you have done extensive reserch? thanks in advance.

    • my_dog_picks,

      You seem to suggest that this board has not prepared you for the latest gap down of UTSI stock price. In particular, no one has predicted the SEC formal inquiry.

      I agree with you that no longs indeed predicted the SEC action. However, that's not to say that the board has not discussed many negative factors that would make a long cautious in his or her approach when investing/trading with UTSI. While there are posts from other people that pointed out the problems with UTSI, I'll share with you just a few of my own previous posts to that effect.

      In msg 113466, I titled my post "More - signs than +." I made some observation regarding the stock's weakness, suspected shrinking backlogs and other possible negative development, and indicated that "UTSI's official guidance is not much help either as it often misses the mark by a long shot after the downturn got started two years ago." In fact, in that thread, YOU even defended me against the impostor who called me a naked short. And I appreciated you support.

      In msg.113625 on Sept 8, I made the following cautionary comment: "investors should bear in mind UTSI's previous track record of overly optimistic projections on the Indian market ($100m/year rev from Reliance alone), TD-CDMA ($400-800m/year), PCD margin ramp, PAS handset amps and ASICS, IPTV taking off in China, etc, not to mention abrupt PAS rev drop-off of $1B/year." To any long-timers who bave been through those gut-wrenching times, they knew what I was talking about, and so I did not amplify on those issues. Just constant reminders of those past fiascos should be warning enough.

      More up-to-date, right before the latest plunge, I responded to your request for information with a fuller account of UTSI's external and internal problems in a series of posts from 114381-114385. As you can see, even though I did not anticipate the SEC problem, I did emphasize a long list of other problem areas that defy easy solutions. I also emphasized management's inexperience and past track record of faulty market reading and over-optimism. That should have given new comers enough warning to tread the water very cautiously until they figure out the exact nature of the problems and cost-reward ratio themselves. I am not a paid analyst, and I cannot issue complete treatises to expound on all the major problems repeatedly on the board. It would be up to each of us individually to research those things ourselves.

      Now it is true that despite my lack of faith in management guidances and insist on doing my own extensive research into the industry landscape and competitive situations, I have been reluctant to fault the management in terms of their integrity. I could be wrong on that, it remains to be seen. But that's only my personal assessment in accordance to how I really feel. It has nothing to do with any hidden ulterior motive in trying to shield the management from investor complaint. In fact, in one of the earlier posts before the plunge, I said that "I appreciate any efforts under way to alert the SEC about any possible fraudulent activities on this stock" in response to rocky7777 (msg.114248).

      I value your observations even if they are mostly of a very negative nature at the present.

      When the board is mostly positive, I like to inject some caution. When the board is mostly negative, I like to talk about some positives. I just like to encourage a balanced view of UTSI, that's all. I know that means I'd often run into strong headwinds, not exactly what a good politician would do. But then again, I am not trying to be one.

      Hope you geting better with your health. And have a nice day.

      tigre

    • the word is out, utsi equipment is defective.
      no buyers of gear or company, a steady fall until out of business sale occurs. I imagine old-time, experienced engineers have been going elsewhere for awhile now. We will only see steady declines from here, in both earnings and share price.

    • "Lastly, I have made my own mistakes on this stock, and I blame myself as much as I blame the UTSI management."
      Ditto.
      But the fact remains that this company offers an opportunity for steady gains for many years to come once this transitional phase is over and that should not be lost in the heat of disappointment over the most recent events. Not sure where the bottom is going to be but I think that it will be in place 4-6 months from now. Patience is needed now. Have a nice day.
      Shadow

    • my_dog_picks_my_stocks my_dog_picks_my_stocks Oct 20, 2005 10:45 AM Flag

      First of all Curious, you are once again shifting all blame onto the shareholder, which is very wrong. Each of us has finite resources and time to do DD before making a decision. I did what would be considered more than adequate DD before getting involved with this company.

      "And for someone who gets furious at the management's performance and credibility after a $2 drop, it would be curious why such fingers were not pointed when one looked at the $35 drop over the last 2 years."

      What you continue to fail to do is hold management accountable for the statements they made about recovery and restructuring. Statements I listened to during my DD.

      "In a nut shell, your research did not prepare you for the surprises in decline margin, contract postponement, accounting misses, and share holder lawsuits and SEC probe. Most of these were ongoing, and most investors/traders in this stock who have been on this board a while know the risks they are taking as well as their own personal responsibilities in taking a chance."

      That is absolute nonesense. I have been reading this board for months now and NOT ONCE have I seen ANYONE here including you, mention any anticipated contract postponements or a pending SEC probe. NOT ONCE. Please show me the posts. What I did hear over and over again was that they would likely make the downgraded Q3 numbers, and turn it completely around by 2006. That is the ONLY think I ever heard here.

      "And remember we talked extensively about UTSI's internal and external problems before the latest pre-announcement? "

      I don't remember ANYONE saying anything about a new SEC probe. Show me the posts. I do remember saying myself that I thought the company was too focused on technology issues and seemed weak in strategy and marketing. NO ONE AGREED. The discussion was ALWAYS about technology.

      "Lastly, I have made my own mistakes on this stock, and I blame myself as much as I blame the UTSI management."

      Again, Curious, I respect your knowledge and civility, but I haven't seen you hold management accountable for one single thing. You have spent far more time trying to find holes in my DD methodology and this continues to smack of a management apologist philosophy.

    • You have a right to your opinion but your right doesn't make you right - it just allows you to write.

      Tigre has for years taken an immense amount of time to explain that, which he knows and is familiar with, to those that may have less inherent knowledge of the subject matter.

      I, for one, appreciate the effort he and many others make to expound - sometimes to the emotional, nonetheless - his and their opinions. He doesn't tell someone to buy or sell. Most often cautioning about obscure fact tidbits.

      I detect no malice or deliberate attempts to mislead in his posts - unlike other posters with prolific attempts to discredit the company, its officers and/or fellow posters.

      If you are personally attacking someone for what you did with your checkbook - I wish you a speedy path through puberty and adolescence.

    • do yourself a favor, place tigrito on ignore. he is a conniving person who intends to manipulate.

    • my_dog_picks,

      "Curious, I DID my research. What is now obvious is that I should have down more..."

      You got it there. But then you said:

      "but NO ONE is prepared for the kinds of misleading statements UTSI management made..."

      while in the same post, you also stated that

      "Even after earnings, I went back YEARS and researched the 10Q's and statements made by management. I wanted to know where I went wrong. What I found was a PATTERN of misleading statements used to cover up poor management."

      Bingo. If a new investor sees a stock falling from $40+ to $8+ over a number of two years, it behoves him or her to do the kind of due diligence that you later did, before committing any funds. Even if one simply compared the gross margins in the previous 10Q's, one would see a pattern of continuing decline and should be sufficiently alarmed to conduct further research into the industry and competitive landscape. Then one would find out even more problem areas. And for someone who gets furious at the management's performance and credibility after a $2 drop, it would be curious why such fingers were not pointed when one looked at the $35 drop over the last 2 years. Certainly one would seek out outside sources of information and discount management guidances given their prior track record.

      I remember you asking good questions when you first arrived at the board. You asked about industry positioning, competition, etc. That means you recognized there were important areas that you needed more research on.

      In a nut shell, your research did not prepare you for the surprises in decline margin, contract postponement, accounting misses, and share holder lawsuits and SEC probe. Most of these were ongoing, and most investors/traders in this stock who have been on this board a while know the risks they are taking as well as their own personal responsibilities in taking a chance.

      All of this is not saying that the management should not take its share of the blame. They have repeatedly disappointed us in their performance and on missing their guidances. And they have lost a huge amount of investor confidence in their competence and credibility. But as far as I can tell, the managerial problem is more a question of ability and experience, not outright fraught or rampant corruption. We can disagree with each other on this which is fine with me. I might even be wrong and you could be right. But I can assure you that I am not connected to the management in any way.

      There are times when no amount of due diligence can prepare an investor for a surprise hit. But the problems with UTSI have been so long standing and widely known on this board, and can also be gleaned from other sources, even the income statements (plunging margin and net earnings) and balance sheets (decreasing cash) themselves.

      And remember we talked extensively about UTSI's internal and external problems before the latest pre-announcement? I am sure many of those problems sounded new to you. But not to Wall Street or folks on this board.

      I hope you don't see the above comments either as unabashedly pro-management or unfairly targeted at you. You suspected me of doing both, so I have to explain myself here.

      Lastly, I have made my own mistakes on this stock, and I blame myself as much as I blame the UTSI management.

      regards,
      tigre

    • "Look doggyboy if you've spent less time threating people"

      And just who have I threatened? Do you ever have ANYTHING truthful or remotely useful to share?

    • Imposter

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