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Sauer-Danfoss Inc. Message Board

  • whatdadil9 whatdadil9 May 8, 2011 4:42 PM Flag

    WHy the sell off?

    This thing still trades at a very big discount to peer group and MGMT are clearly sandbaggers. I can see them doing 550-600mm of ebitda in 2011. How is this not cheap?

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    • they are pro sandbaggers clearly. but the $695 mil in new orders is i believe a new all time record. previously when they had orders almost that high, they followed with Revenue of about $610 mil for the quarter if remember correctly. In Q4 orders were $577 and we then saw $564 in revenue. There will be some kind of seasonal lull in Q3 as there always seems to be but i doubt it will be much lower then Q1 was but probably will have to be lower then Q2.

      SNHY's earnings are very good after the close today which gives me even more confidence that SHS will be sequentially up.

      I think with MGMT bending over backwards to be conservative, some longs got scared out. But they do this every quarter and then they kill the quarter and act surprised.

      SHS will consolidate for a little while and then drift higher again and then im still hoping that Danfoss A/S makes another attempt to buyout the minority shareholders. I think MGMT wont fight them now that the stock is up. If i was Danfoss A/S i think it would be logical to pay $85 per share cash. That would be a full valuation for SHS at this point but since they already own 75% of the outstanding stock, its not going to cost them a lot to buy the rest. Once they have it, they will have direct access to all the cashflow of SHS which is very substantial right now.

      • 1 Reply to christmasfern
      • I dont see Danfoss buying out the whole co. up here... thats just me.

        Your point of orders ---> revenues is well taken. This would asume qoq revenue growth would be like 70 pct in q2 right?

        SNHY forecasted 35 pct revenue growth q2 and guided to 58 in q1 and we got 45. Seems awfully hard for them to do double a comp of SNHY in q2 when they are usually lower.

        What creates the incremental buyer in the stock now? i agree its cheap but its thinly traded and everytime you hold into earnings and it is not a massive "beat" you risk losing 20 pct. thoguhts?