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Advanced Fibre Communic. (AFCI) Message Board

  • JoePaki JoePaki Feb 5, 2000 12:16 PM Flag

    Re: Rumor

    I am very encouraged by the latest rumors.
    I
    was a long time holder of Ciena before the aborted
    buyout by Tellabs and the similarities are striking.
    Here are some reasons for my excitement:

    1.
    Ciena rumors had been floating around for a while, but
    it wasn't until specific rumors about the share swap
    ratio began to surface that the deal was actually
    announced.

    2. Ciena shares moved sharply on the Friday before
    the announcement on more than double the normal
    volume which was wierd at the time due to the fact that
    many traders usually close out long positions of
    volitile stocks over the weekend. (The deal was announced
    the following Monday.

    3. AFC shares moved
    sharply in December and then retreated. It could have
    been due to traders seeing the the first signs that
    this deal might actually happen.

    4. Sorensen
    estimated that the OEM deal would be announced by the end
    of January. Since all the analysts seemed to know
    about it, it doesn't make sense that AFC is holding
    back unless the reason is something bigger.

    5.
    The analysts seemed to raise their targets in unison,
    again back in December when CSCO shares were trading
    around $100 ($100*.60= $60). Maybe CSCO's initial bid
    was 0.6 shares?

    6. You wouldn't expect to see
    a drop in CSCO's share price due to arbitrage
    trading given CSCO's $400+ B market cap, even at $7B,
    this deal is a blip for CSCO.

    Bottom line, if
    rumors are correct we should know before the bell on
    Monday.

    Enjoy the weekend everyone!

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