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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • bleskithepolak bleskithepolak Jul 8, 2011 4:14 PM Flag

    6 Month Head and Shoulders

    Look at the 6 month forming a perfect head and shoulders pattern - I see below 1300 next week and 1250 by the end of July.

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    • If you look at the 3 year chart, sp500 = 1200 (maybe 1000) and sp500 = 950 stick out like sore thumbs.

      That corresponds to spy = 120, 110, and 90.

      I'm willing to wager that austerity catches up to us (and maybe some event) to take the market back to sp500 = 950 and spy = 90.


      At some point, I believe the stock market hedge against the dollar wears out, since the market is in dollars. China and Korea and some other countries are starting to favor treasuries less and less.

    • I struggle to see that.

      I do however see the S&P range-bound since the 2009 low, and we're getting to the end of that range so something has to give.

      Here's how I see it: If you draw a straight line starting from the 2009 666 low, through the July 2010 and late-August 2010 low, up to our June 2011 low (that's the bottom range); then one from the high of April 2010, through Feb 2011 and onto Apr 2011 (that's the top range), you see a nice, contracting channel.

      This suggests to me that (1) we have a ways up to go yet - maybe 1400 or so on the S&P, and then (2) we have a long way to come down afterwards.

      But one step at a time: I'm playing for a little more upside first. And now that NFP is out of the way, things may calm down again.

      Now, if Moody's rating on Italy can just keep quiet for a few more days...

      GL all

      WiZ

 
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