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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

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  • matthew_and_january matthew_and_january Dec 8, 2011 6:49 PM Flag

    Who did not buy the dip before the close and why?

    I didn't buy because:

    1) 4th day in a row major fail against 200 day average
    2) Draghi killed off hope of ECB bond buying, which was the whole reason for the rally up into the Europe 'plan' announcement. No one cares about fiscal integration, as that doesn't solve the near term problem, which is:
    3) Italy will default by end of January if ECB or IMF doesn't buy bonds as they have $100 billion of bonds to refinance that month - only buyer can be ECB/IMF, but they can't do it unless they print money and buy bonds (QE).
    4) With fail on 200 day average, paired with no bond buying announcement, will lead to both technical and fundamental selling at the same time, with few buyers.

    Markets are likely to fall a lot before they entice new buyers into the market to try to catch the falling knife. Another -5% at least, more like -10%.

201.33+0.12(+0.06%)4:25 PMEDT