* FT Trading Post http://www.ft.com and
* I Know First system http://iknowfirst.com/
noted how dependent the US stock market's 2012 rally had been on the performance of Apple shares.
The danger is that Statistics supports the thesis that the period from May to October is not favorable for the stock market.
IMO time to buy VIX on dips is very near.
The U.S. likely added more jobs in April than it did in March, economists say, but the pace of hiring is too slow to make a big dent in the nation’s high unemployment rate.
The economy gained 163,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate remained flat at 8.2%, according to analysts polled by MarketWatch.
U.S. stocks fell today as investors adopted a cautious stance a day ahead of the government’s monthly jobs report.
“Friday’s employment number once again looms large,” Kevin Giddis, head of fixed-income capital markets at Morgan Keegan & Co., wrote of the markets’ caution.
Oliver Pursche, co-manager of the GMG Defensive Beta fund, says that the last few years have represented a “bull market in earnings and a bear market in valuations” for U.S. stocks, which is one reason why domestic equities are the place to invest now.
In the MoneyLife Market Call interview with Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch senior columnist, Pursche said investors will find the best opportunities right now in U.S. stocks, and said they should avoid or underweight Europe. For international exposure, he suggested that China and Latin America – particularly Mexico – present attractive opportunities.
“The upside (in Europe) is much more limited than the upside in the United States,” said Pursche, who as a global fund manager is always looking for international opportunities, “and the downside risk is significant.”
In searching for those domestic equities, Pursche suggested looking at technology and health care, which “stand out as big winners both on the earnings side and the revenue side.” He noted that Apple, Intel and Abbott Labs.
And while domestic equities represent the best opportunity now, Pursche noted that he is lowering exposure to materials and industrial stocks, “the companies that will be most affected by headline news. Those will be the most volatile.”
Through April 30, 2012, 305 companies in the S&P 500 (IVV) have reported their earnings. From an operating earnings basis, 212 beat the consensus estimate, 34 met the estimate, and 59 companies missed. The 69.51% success rate thus far is ahead of last quarter's 58.55% rate of companies beating the operating earnings estimate.
US equities! may lead the S&P but have you been watching the material sector, steels up, concrete up, Nue up, aks up, Mcp up, Grainger has been up big time. There is always a sector to invest in, look at ACAS, what do they do? what does it lead you to believe
According to FT:
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 1.1 per cent in the six months from May to October versus a gain of 7 per cent from November to April, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
May itself has been marked by big gains and losses at various times.
More than the entirety of the S&P 500's capital gain since 1932 has come during the 7 days surrounding the end/start of the month, writes Eddy Elfenbein. "If you slice and dice any data long enough, you're bound to find some anomaly," he quickly adds, not positive there's a tradable angle here.