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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • IBDMAN15 IBDMAN15 Jun 2, 2012 11:18 AM Flag

    Poll what % drop next week? Black Monday?

    2%
    5%
    7%
    10%
    15%
    20%
    27%
    more than 27%?

    Look at sept-oct chart in 1987. what happened on the monday after the 200 dma was breached on thursday and friday?????

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    • This aint 1987....again.

      • 1 Reply to tsibr549
      • could be similar to 1937, 1973, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 though. Overall 1987 wasn't such a bad year since there was a huge advance until August 1987. Fall 2008 was far worse than Oct 1987 to put it in context. The investors that got killed were the ones late to the party like the folks buying in January-March of 2012 that haven't cut their losses yet. They will get wiped out and never touch another stock. They will sell when down 30-40%. Think about the FB holders right now. What will they do when FB is $10-$15/share after buying at $40....perhaps just hold for 20 years and wait for a four bagger to occur?? The Euro issues and $1400 T derivative overhang have the potential to be far worse than Lehman's Sept 2008 failure. FB could trade into the single numbers and stay their for years. Wall Street coned everyone on this. The security attorneys will get rich from this failed IPO. Let the buyer beware. all stocks are bad unless they go up.

    • Why do you always post nonsense BS. 1987???..I worked in the Securities business in 1987. Back then, a typical trading day resulted in 50 million shares trade on the entire New York Stock exchange. Today, SPY alone trades three times that on a slow day.....and did not exist in 1987.....How about some credibility......Posting crap about 1987 isn't doin' it for ya!

      • 2 Replies to stoptheinsanity2000
      • greed and fear has been the same forever. read about the Tulip bulb mania/bubble? In the future, this could be referred to as the FED/Obama induced bubble of record low S-T interest rates for way too long....record money printing, record increase in deficit under one president in 3.5 years. actually Obama has racked up more debt in 3.5 years than the entire US since 1776. That sure hasn't been tested yet. what if rates do increase by 2-3% to curb hyper inflation? Anyone check plane tickets lately? an increase to 2% would be an eight fold move from the current 0.25%!! Look at the stock index charts. Those show fear and greed and what is actually happening now......not what some talking head on CNBC thinks ought to occur or wants to happen.

      • And two years ago, we had a flash crash. That wasn't 1987, either.

        Tom's argument is no less valid than yours.

    • A 10% one day drop would equal about a 20% correction, which is reasonable.

      Then a 5% bounce, and sideways until the middle of June.

      My guesstimate.

    • by tuesday i think between 1266 and 1259 then up for the rest of the week. then crash to 1207 if that doesn't hold 858

      • 1 Reply to spaceturtle9000
      • that's good analysis. I believe we test 1074 on SPX this week....the October low. Look at "Volume by price" on the SPY. There is an air pocket down to $107. The panic swelling this week could be unreal. Think about Friday, the put/call only landed at 1.18. Need 1.5 for a true train wreck and buying opportunity. That's only a 16% drop, far less than the 27% Dow drop on Black Friday 1987. With the PPT and trading circuit breakers in place we could easily do a 16% drop in 5 trading days but perhaps not in one day.

    • but it could. Problem is things are so bad, once Romney starts leading in the polls by a wide margin market will likely rally since we get rid of the do nothing socialist administration. Things are getting way worse under obama. Read this from Walker:

      6/1 Jobs Hit the Iceberg Today: NFP 69,000

      The Economy is a Train Wreck

      The U.S. recession that began in December 2007 ended in June 2009, making the 18-month slump the longest since the Great Depression, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research back in in 2010. That's a bunch of poppycock!

      GDP is being artificially propped up by US government borrowing and printing, which is creating an illusion of growth when there is none. Clearly GDP is trending down. The GDP last year shrunk to 1.7% annually from 3.0% in 2010, and it is likely to come in lower this year, with the bleak 2nd revision that we got on May 31st. It is not just the US debt choking the life out of the economy, it is the absence of growth, which is clearly reflected in the GDP.

      This whole jobless recovery is nothing more than a mirage, a sham! Job growth is declining not rising. Housing prices continue to be in a free fall. GDP is down. Consumer Confidence has fallen off a cliff.

      Supposedly the stimulus was to fix the economy and not allow the unemployment rate to rise above 8%. Well the stimulus was signed into law in February 2009, the same month the unemployment rate first moved above 8%, and it hasn't dropped below 8% in 40 months. The unemployment rate as been above 8% for almost 3 1/2 years.

      It came as no surprise to me when the latest job numbers showed the unemployment rate actually went UP from 8.1% to 8.2%. Feeble hiring by U.S. employers in May sent markets plummeting and dimmed the already-cloudy outlook for an economy that appears to be following Europe and Asia into a slowdown.

      If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when before the financial crisis ~ 65.7% then vs. 63.8 % today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9 %.

      Employers added a seasonally adjusted 69,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase in a year, and estimates for the two previous months were lowered. In April, the NFP were previously reported as 115,000 jobs; it was really 77,000. So April was revised downward and worse than expected. And March, 11,000 fewer jobs in March created; only 143,000 there. So you've got three months of less job creation than prevously thought. Notice that the weekly intial claims continue to be revised up every week, while the net jobs being created each month is being revised down each month.

      Ed Morrissey points out:

      "The U-6 figure, which comprises all unemployed and marginally attached workers, rose from 14.5% to 14.8%. The only really positive news was a fairly significant drop in the number of people not in the labor force, which went from 88.419 million to 87.958 million, a difference of 461,000 workers. However, the increase in underutilization tempers that improvement quite a bit."

      Today's employment numbers caught many long term bulls by surprise, with their rosy projects of a recovery that never came. There is no recovery, there is not one economic metric that we can point to that shows that the economy is on the mend.

    • You don't want it to drop a lot
      so that longs can pile in
      and average down.
      When they buy
      then short.

      They LOVE to lose money they made in the 2009-2012
      Ponzi scheme.

      or the 2009-2011
      Ponzi scheme
      for longs in gold and silver.

      And $TSX!
      Toronto Stock Exchange.

      Nice 1.5 year drop.

    • xtgeminiman@ymail.com xtgeminiman Jun 2, 2012 11:23 AM Flag

      It's going to 1205 and probably not that much lower.

 
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