David Tepper - who famously called the big post-QE2 bull market - is back on CNBC and very bullish again. The market has just a small bit of downside risk from these levels, he says, but a return to market multiples not seen since the 90s is the upside. All that's needed for ignition is a deal out of D.C
Of all the year-end indicators out there, the Santa Claus rally is perhaps the most misunderstood, says Jeff Hirsch, editor in chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac. "People use the phrase sort of loosely for any sort of year end rally," he explains in the attached video, when in fact, its parameters and indicators are quite precise.
Stock-index futures pushed higher Monday, helped by a bit of good news within manufacturing surveys out of China and Europe, which came ahead of the important Institute of Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing index due later.
Key market gauges: Futures on the Dow DJZ2 and the S&P SPZ2 are up slightly, while Europe markets XX:SXXP +0.61% are riding a steady stream of economic data to mild gains. Read Indications.
The economy: The ISM Manufacturing Index will hit at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, with analysts looking for the PMI to hold steady at 51.7. Any reading above 50 means expansion. We’ll also get construction-spending data at the same time, along with a stream of monthly new-car sales results.
Agreeing on the creaky condition of the fiscal position of Western governments, two economists come to the opposite conclusion on gold.
Lombard's Leigh Skene thinks the EU debt crisis has set in play a deflationary spiral in which gold falls (and sliver plunges), while John Williams says 2014 will bring realization of the U.S. government's insolvency and a soaring price.
IMO, Gold and stocks will have oposite directions.
How the market performs before and after Thanksgiving?
Last year on Wednesday before Thanksgiving the S&P 500 fell 2.21%, only to rise 2.92% on the following Monday!
But it is an exception, historically the day before Thanksgiving has been positive, the day after Thanksgiving has been mixed.
This year will see an unprecedented move by the big boys of retail to open their stores earlier than ever on Thanksgiving Day, putting pressure on the traditions — from indulging in an oversize dinner to loafing around watching football — that many families hold sacred.
“Retailers have basically ruined every holiday,” says Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at NPD Group, a retail research consultant.
“They have commercialized every single holiday by creating a good reason to promote something and drive traffic.”
Fiscal Cliff, some facts:
Fact 1: Outlays Are High, But Cutting Spending Alone Cannot Balance Or Avert A Fiscal Crisis
Fact 2: Government Receipts Are At The Lowest Levels Since 1950, But Raising Revenues Alone Cannot Balance the Budget