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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Message Board

  • jca433 jca433 Nov 9, 2012 2:09 PM Flag

    Weak bounce!

    I was expecting a much larger bounce than 0.3% after all the sell the past two days. It is not happening though. Earnings have probably peaked but they did in 2006 and the top the following year in 2007. This may repeat and is one possible outcome, however, I would not bet on it!

    It seem earnings peak every 5 to 7 years and the recent past peaks came in 2000 and 2006. It is 2012 six years after the prior peak but it is possible earnings could move sideways for another two to three quarters before plunging. They can fudge earnings but NOT revenue. Weak revenue to me is a red flag and good reason to sell. Have fun while the music is playing and set mental stops for any long positions.

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    • In 2006-7 was the tail end of a 30-year secular bull market in which every pullback was a buying opportunity and all diversified long portfolios were expected to pay off in the long term. With memories of the 2008 crash fresh in mind and an economic landscape that would over-euphemistically be described as shaky, don't expect this plane to keep coasting after the engines have stalled.

      *Best* case, we've entered a cyclical bear market, and the downtrend will continue at least to the upper 1200's, and more likely to the low 1000's.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Negative earnings ratio at 77% for Q3-Levels not seen since the height of the IT Bubble in 2000.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
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