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SPDR S&P 500 Message Board

  • superbmindset superbmindset Jan 5, 2013 2:15 AM Flag

    The Weakest Hand Probability....

    …..vs. the Strongest Hand Possibility

    In the context of the recent posts I read here where some are saying possible US recessionary trends looming in 2013, it is useful to note that there will be winners during any part of the global economic cycle even for the US which is presumably, according to these views, dealt the weakest hand. As an example, I use metaphorical speak and leave you to interpret the poker “tells”…..

    The game is Limit Texas Hold’em. There are three players left at the table. The Asian “rounder” sitting next to what is believed to be an “amateur” American. The “seasoned” European is sitting at the opposite of both of them.

    The cards are dealt, Euro gets a Queen – Six, American looks down at his hand and sees a King – Three, the Asian is dealt a pair of Nines.

    European comes out strong betting. The Asian & American stay in by following the aggressive play of the European.

    Flop comes Ace, Three, Eight….the European comes out firing, the American calls, the Asian although having the strongest hand, reluctantly bets the amounts too.

    The turn shows a Jack! The European without hesitation bets, the American raises, the Asian “rounder” folds!

    The river card is a Ten. The European bets again, the American raises! The European calls.

    The European reveals his dismal hand, Ace high! The American has won the pot with a pair of threes!
    The Asian can’t believe it. I had a pair of nines and I folded, he says. Why did you fold the American asks. “Well you two were so aggressive at betting, I was sure I was beat”….

    As the American is gathering his stacks of chips, the seasoned European furious turns to the American “if you play like this all night, all that money will soon be on my side of the table”…the American tips the dealer and cashes in his winnings…it’s getting late, I’ll see you guys again tomorrow!

    Above I venture some imaginary story on likely trends for 2013 so the poker theme above serves more as a guide on various 2013 plays in the global economies, rather than pin-pointing bullish or bearish stock market scenarios….

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