There is no such thing as buy and hold investors anymore.
With the sequester coming in March, I just don't see this going higher.
Today, was the first of the month which means new money coming into the market and it was weekly OE and they got it over 151.
As for OE, max pain was clearly at the 150 strike on the spy, OI was close to double that on the 151 strike, but go figure..
Interesting thing, a book i read on selling options at monthly options expiration attributed 'pinning' to a strike just a natural reaction to institutional firms adjusting their option positions as price moved to remain delta neutral in their holdings. This condition was most evident in highly liquid options, ie, C, Bac, MA, you get the idea..
I wanna share one of those 'what was that?' moments yesterday that quickly told me something was up and that today's action was orchestrated, and noone can tell me otherwise, it's one of those 'you just know' feelings..
Last few days, i've been buying Vix calls at lunchtime, when volatility drops, then selling it at the peak of the following morning. One of those 'it works til it doesn't work' trades, but it had worked for 4 days in a row, Vix climbed into the close on each day..
Yesterday, bought Vix a little earlier in the day than i should've, around 14.02, Vix is now moving up into the close, got to 14.32, my position was up about 13%..
Then, with like a minute to go, the Vix quickly dumped 10 points to 14.22, and my position went from 13% up to a little down. I went #$%$..????
Then, almost as quickly, futures were up 4.5 pts on the S&P. I even posted about it and some knucklehead told me it was an error and it was really .45, but he was wrong of course, and that level held all night, then today..
Shea, the utter disaster that he is, said to look out for a down day followed by a big up day, and that could possibly be the top, orchestrated to suck in the new money flowing into the market and create a buying euphoria...
good analysis. bravo bravo, bull to bear ratio highest level ever by some measurements. 14k psychological area hit as record levels of inflows January from retail. I would venture to say that the hangover will hit over the weekend and brighter minds will have their sell orders ready for the open Monday. With a little luck, brighter minds selling could snowball quickly for a good old fashioned CORRECTION, something this market sentiment fails to remember. Good Luck!